Well it's that time again. For NFL fans and bettors, August is synonymous with hope and the excitement of a new season on the horizon. It also means new opportunities to grow as a bettor by applying lessons we've learned in years past, through wins and losses.'
Every handicapper has a different process for how and when they start diving into the NFL. For me, it's more like a slow burn, with periodic check-ins throughout the offseason before the flood gates open fully in July when teams report for training camp. But sadly even if I wanted to take a break in the spring or summer, the hypersensitive news cycle is nearly impossible to ignore for long periods of time.'
I’m of the belief that you don’t need to put in a lot of offseason legwork on rosters and schemes to be a successful NFL bettor. For the most part I use the offseason to monitor the market itself, especially after breaking news when the most movement usually occurs.'
Don't get me wrong, it probably won't hurt to be extra prepared for the fall if you have the time. But keep in mind even the most diligent analysts will not hesitate to ditch their offseason research once actual results start coming in.'
“I don't really factor in too much of what I thought the teams were in the offseason a month into the year,” NFL betting analyst Warren Sharp said on a recent podcast with notable professional NFL handicapper Las Vegas Cris.'
So just 4 games into a 17-game season, Sharp is willing to ditch months of preparation he did from March through July. That's how fast the market can move in the NFL, which makes me further question how much value there is in doing a lot of offseason research.'
Should you bet on the preseason?
I've seen mixed reactions to this question amongst pros with solid arguments on both sides.
“I'm not trying to get down on small edges in the preseason,” Sharp added. “I'd rather process information to improve my decision-making and my thought process about this team so that when limits are high and the regular season is here I can be successful.”
Our pal LVC is also in line with that way of thinking and believes the preseason is “all about information”.'
But there is also valid opposition research to bring to the debate, like this tweet from noteworthy pro Steve Fezzik.
NFL Preseason:
1. It is very beatable, bet it!
Smart
2. It is beatable, I just don't specialize in it, so I personally choose to pass.
Acceptable
3. It is an exhibition game; teams don't care about winning. It is random and unbeatable.