6 vs. 11 history in NCAA Tournament: How often is there an upset, list of this year's matchups

The 2023 NCAA Tournament is here, and it's time to uncover some sneaky underdog picks. One recurring source of upsets comes from the 11-seed putting up fights against a 6-seed. Below, we'll break down the history of the 6 vs. 11 seed matchup in the NCAA Tournament.

History of 6 vs. 11 seed matchup in NCAA Tournament

Since 1985, the 11-seed has won this matchup 37.5 percent of the time. However, that rate has climbed dramatically in more recent years. Check this out: an 11 seed has beaten a 6 seed at least twice in six of the last seven NCAA Tournaments.

Since 2014, No. 11 seeds have beaten 6 seeds in 15-of-28 total first round matchups. That's a 53.4% win rate for the supposed underdog. Even though 11 seeds haven't been historically great in the first round, that trend has changed dramatically in recent years.

2023 6 vs. 11 matchups

West: No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Arizona State/Nevada
South: No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 NC State
East: No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Providence
Midwest: No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Mississippi State/Pittsburgh

Recent data tells us that one of the 6-seeds is going to go down. Kentucky finds itself only a 3.5-point favorite over Providence at DraftKings Sportsbook. Creighton is also on upset alert in their matchup against NC State, as they are installed as only five-point favorites.

  
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