College football season-win bets
I’ve spent the last six weeks or so revealing a lot of the information I like to go over each offseason in preparation for the next college football season. After going back through the coaching changes, Stability Scores, transitional systems, recruiting rankings and playing out the schedule according to my power ratings, I’ve locked in on 30 team season-win total bets that I will be making. Below are those 30 wagers, with the odds available at DraftKings.
If you missed any of my college season prep work, simply go back through the recent articles under my name at VSiN.com or visit my Twitter account for the links. Most or all of it will also be made available in the upcoming VSiN College Football Preseason Betting Guide, due out in early August.
Before revealing my 2023 plays, here is how I fared on my 2022 plays at this same time one year ago, when I went 14-5-1, including 9-1 on UNDERs. This should give you a better idea of the criteria I use as the basis for my plays, and how it works out:
2022 bets
Arizona OVER 2.5 wins — WIN
This one finalized early as Arizona went 3-2 in its first five games and finished 5-7. I loved the experience and QB upgrade that head coach Jedd Fisch had working for him.
Bowling Green OVER 3.5 wins — WIN
Bowling Green had a very experienced roster coming back and a fourth-year starting QB in Matt McDonald. I also felt the MAC was weakened a lot heading into 2022. BGSU finished 6-6 in the regular season and received a Quick Lane Bowl bid.
Florida State OVER 6.5 wins — WIN
This one was a layup, with FSU bringing back a talented, experienced roster, led by dynamic QB Jordan Travis. FSU won its first four and last five games of the regular season.
Fresno State OVER 8.5 wins — LOSS
I went against my usual grain on this play and backed a team with a new head coach coming in. Fresno State had a good year, winning 10 games, but only eight came in the regular season, and a 19-14 loss to UConn as a 23-point favorite proved to be the key defeat.
North Carolina OVER 7.5 wins — WIN
I felt UNC had a great shot to come on strong last season in a weakened ACC Coastal Division, and I called for UNC to have as good a shot as anyone to win it. The Tar Heels did but lost both the ACC title game and their bowl game to finish 9-5.
Northern Illinois OVER 6.5 wins — LOSS
This was my most definitive miss as NIU suffered through some key injuries at quarterback and lost six times as a favorite, finishing 3-9.
Northwestern OVER 3.5 wins — LOSS
An experienced Northwestern team won its first game overseas against Nebraska and appeared ready to take off. That turned out to be the only game the Wildcats would win, and now the program is in shambles.
SMU OVER 7 wins — PUSH
SMU was another team I backed that was bringing in a new coaching staff. That’s rare and I will learn from it. SMU played well, not great, last season and finished 7-5 in the regular season before losing the New Mexico Bowl.
Stanford OVER 4.5 wins — LOSS
Stanford brought back 17 starters last year, including eventual NFL draftee QB Tanner McKee but failed to take advantage. I thought I had a chance to win this one after the Cardinal beat Notre Dame and Arizona State in back-to-back weeks to go 3-4, but they didn’t win again.
TCU OVER 6.5 wins — WIN
An obvious and easy winner here as TCU went 12-0 in the regular season and eventually played for the national title.
Arizona State UNDER 6.5 wins — WIN
ASU was a train wreck in 2022 and there were plenty of hints that it could be heading that way entering the season. A 3-9 season turned out to be head coach Herm Edwards’ last.
Colorado State UNDER 5.5 wins — WIN
Colorado State had a stability score of just 2 (out of 19) last season on my scale. New coaching staff, new QB, lots of other new starters. I almost always bet UNDER on these teams. The Rams finished 3-9.
Hawaii UNDER 4.5 wins — WIN
Another team that was completely starting over last year. Head coach Timmy Chang’s Rainbow Warriors went just 3-10.
Louisiana UNDER 8.5 wins — WIN
After a run of success under head coach Billy Napier (now at Florida) and behind QB Levi Lewis, Louisiana faced a retooling challenge last year. A 6-6 regular season was the result.
Nevada UNDER 5 wins — WIN
Nevada was the first team I ever had with a Stability Score of ZERO heading into a season in 2022. It was an automatic bet. Nevada went 2-10.
Oklahoma UNDER 9.5 wins — WIN
Oddsmakers were overzealous last year in thinking the Sooners wouldn’t drop in a clear transition season. Granted, new head coach Brent Venables had a lot of talent to work with, but he is a defensive guy, a major change for the school. The Sooners wound up 6-7 but should be better in ’23.
Texas Tech UNDER 5.5 wins — LOSS
This was a significant miss for me, as new head coach Joey McGuire guided the Red Raiders to a 7-5 regular season that included three upset wins.
Virginia UNDER 7.5 wins — WIN
Virginia had QB Brennan Armstrong back but just 10 total starters and an entirely new coaching staffs (HC, OC, DC). That has always been a bad recipe. Virginia was just 3-7 and canceled its final two games after a school shooting.
Western Kentucky UNDER 8.5 wins — WIN
WKU had to replace QB Bailey Zappe last year after a season in which he threw for 62 TDs and 5,967 yards. It was a massive void to fill. The Hilltoppers and head coach Tyson Helton did well but fell short, going 7-5 in the regular season.
Western Michigan UNDER 6.5 wins — WIN
WMU was facing declining recruiting rankings and brought back an inexperienced roster in 2022 after a good run of success for the program. Oddsmakers didn’t seem to notice. The Broncos wound up 5-7.
2023 bets
Now for my 2023 plays, of which I’ve settled on 15 OVERs, 15 UNDERs.
Teams to go OVER their 2023 DraftKings season win props:
Akron — OVER 3.5 wins
In my recent article on Statistical Transition Systems from season to season, I detailed an angle that shows how close losses can be a galvanizing factor for teams that stay the course. Of the 24 teams over the last nine seasons that suffered five or more close losses of seven points or fewer and brought back their head coach and at least half of their starters (11+), only two finished worse the next season. The average win improvement was 2.6 per season, representing a 20% jump. Akron qualifies for this system in ’23, and if it only performs to the average level of the system, it will win 4.6 games this season. Head coach Joe Moorhead is back for a second season and has his starting QB and 14 other starters back. Look for an improved Zips team.
Ball State — OVER 4.5 wins
The 2022 Ball State team played in 11 games that were decided by 11 points or fewer. The Cardinals were 5-6 in such games. How might factor into their 2023 success? Well, gaining valuable experience in close games is always important, and for a team that is bringing back 13 starters, an intact coaching staff and a transfer quarterback in Layne Hatcher who is playing in his fifth full season of college football, the chances of turning around many of those six losses are much better. BSU starts with road games at Kentucky and Georgia that should help get it ready for the MAC slate. I expect this team to at least equal its 5-7 record of last season.
Kansas — OVER 6 wins
Another team that made a quantum leap last season and is looking to build on the momentum in 2023 is Kansas, and if the pattern follows anything the likes of which head coach Lance Leipold accomplished at Wisconsin-Whitewater and Buffalo, this team should continue trending upward. The Jayhawks were 6-7 last year and bring back 17 starters, including QB Jalon Daniels, who, after a fast start, was lost to injury and missed five starts last season. The offense definitely fell off without him, dropping by about 10 PPG in his absence. This is also one of four teams with 13+ starters returning and coming back after a year with a losing record despite outscoring opponents. This is a big improvement scenario usually. With a weaker Big 12 lined up for 2023, I expect Kansas to keep climbing.
Kansas State — OVER 7.5 wins
Chris Klieman’s K-State team won double-digit games for the first time since 2012 last year. He used that success to step up recruiting efforts, bringing in the school’s best class in over a decade. This obviously enhances the chances of continued success. The key for this team this season, however, is QB Will Howard, who emerged late last year after the Adrian Martinez injury and gets the full-time job this fall. Replacing RB Deuce Vaughn will be tough, but there are eight offensive starters back in all. This number of 7.5 seems pretty modest considering how well things went last year and how much experience is back.
Miami — OVER 7.5 wins
I am usually the first one to go against anything Miami in college football, as I feel the Hurricanes are usually priced too highly by oddsmakers and perennially underachieve. However, one of the biggest systematic improvements in wins from one season to the next you’ll find comes when nine or more offensive starters, including the quarterback, return from a team that won 33% or less of its games against the spread in the prior season. The average win increase is 16.5% SU and 25.5% ATS. These teams score nearly 6.0 PPG more as well and combined to go 53.1% ATS. The Hurricanes qualify for this. I also like that the first-year pressure is off of head coach Mario Cristobal after a 5-7 season. Behind QB Tyler Van Dyke and 18 other returning starters, this could be a surprise team this fall.
Nebraska — OVER 6 wins
Teams that compete in a lot of games but lose in close fashion are usually good candidates to improve the next season, especially if the coaching is stable there. Well, Nebraska lost five games by seven points or fewer last year and has a new head coach, but I believe the Cornhuskers will benefit greatly from the coaching change. New head coach Matt Rhule took on much bigger rebuilding jobs at Temple and Baylor and led those teams to significant improvement. He is a far better football coach at the college level than at the pro level, where he struggled at Carolina. In Lincoln, he will be back in his element and has a pretty decent roster ready to compete in a questionable Big Ten West Division that could be up for grabs. Don’t be surprised to finally see Nebraska back in a bowl game this year.
Oklahoma — OVER 9.5 wins
Last year was a total transitional season for Oklahoma under first-year head coach Brent Venables. It was only natural that the team would decline despite what remained a very talented roster. A lot of people assumed that veteran transfer QB Dillon Gabriel could just pick up where the previously powerful OU offenses left off. These same people also counted on Venables’ new defense providing much-needed improvement from the Lincoln Riley era. Neither happened. However, the talent level is still high here, and Year 2 in a new system is almost always better than Year 1. I give this team a shot at a Big 12 title in its final season in the conference and would be surprised if it lost more than two games.
Ole Miss — OVER 7.5 wins
Lane Kiffin has taken Ole Miss recruiting efforts to the next level, and the Rebels are now competing in that area with the likes of Florida, Auburn and Tennessee. The results have shown on the field the last two years and should continue in ’23. QB Jaxson Dart has a full season under his belt and has 15 returning starters around him. My power ratings projections call for a 7.5-4.5 record exactly, which would represent a push on this wager, but I believe this team is capable of pulling an upset or two along the way to bring that win total up.
Rice — OVER 4.5 wins
During its recent heyday of football success (2012-14), Rice was playing with players obtained in recruiting classes ranked in the low 90s across the country typically, Three of the last four classes under head coach Mike Bloomgren were at such a level, and the Owls could be ready to see those efforts bear fruit on the field. One of the key pieces brought in this season is transfer QB JT Daniels, who has the experience and pedigree to post some of the best numbers the Owls have seen at the position in many years. This team won five games last year and brings back 14 starters. Even with a switch to the AAC, I don’t see this group being worse than last season.
South Alabama — OVER 8 wins
There is a lot of positive momentum brewing for head coach Kane Wommack at South Alabama as his team comes off a strong 10-3 campaign. He was able to parlay that into an 83rd-ranked recruiting class, its second straight respected group, and the highest for the program on record. With QB Carter Bradley and 17 other starters returning, I don’t see much, if any, reason to forecast a step back. The schedule starts off fast with trips to Tulane and Oklahoma State in the first three weeks, but this team is in solid shape and should be competitive in those games, potentially getting a win or two.
South Carolina — OVER 6.5 wins
It’s easily explainable when a new incoming coach strikes out on his first recruiting trail, and that is exactly what happened to Shane Beamer two years ago at South Carolina. He has certainly redeemed himself since, scoring the program’s best-respected class since 2012 this spring. Off back-to-back winning seasons, the Gamecocks are a team on the rise. It could coincide with a down year in the SEC East as well, as truly, behind Georgia, do you see anyone else that is much better on paper than the Gamecocks? They have arguably the best QB in the division in Spencer Rattler and are riding good momentum. This could be a fun year in Columbia.
South Florida — OVER 4 wins
Clearly there is major room for improvement when a team wins 25% or fewer games in the prior season, but some of the biggest improvement is realized when these teams bring back their starting quarterback AND hire a new head coach AND coordinators. Over the last 10 seasons, there have been some pretty good improvement numbers out of teams that meet this criteria. USF and new head coach Alex Golesh have the added boost of playing in an AAC that has been weakened dramatically. With veteran QB Jerry Bohanon leading the way, I think the Bulls can be one of the more improved teams, at least record-wise, in 2023.
Texas A&M — OVER 7.5 wins
Head coach Jimbo Fisher has brought Texas A&M to the elite of the recruiting rankings, with the program scoring five straight top-10 rankings nationally. The seat is getting warmer for him, however, as the talent in College Station is good enough to compete with the likes of Alabama and Georgia. At least on paper. Could this be the year it finally comes together for Fisher’s program? It's possible, and sometimes all that talent only needs a fresh slate. QB Conner Weigman was very sharp in limited starting action last year but showed the promise of a guy ready to lead an elite roster. Even though the win prop is 7.5, I don’t like to look at the schedule for teams that have the talent to be special. I think the Aggies have that potential. Some things will just need to go very right early.
Utah — OVER 8.5 wins
Head coach Kyle Wittingham scored his best recruiting class in his tenure at Utah this spring, and with the program having been given ranks of 35th or better in four straight years, it sure looks as if the Utes will continue building on back-to-back double-digit win seasons. His team has reached another level by going to back-to-back Rose Bowl games, and with 16 starters back for ’23, should continue ascending. The Utes are now elite on both sides of the ball and with QB Cam Rising back for his senior season, they have a great on-field leader as well. The schedule is very tough, but this team is experienced and gritty and has the makeup to navigate it successfully.
USC — OVER 10 wins