2023 NHL Draft: Is drafting Russian wing Matvei Michkov too risky that high in the first round?

“And with the first pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, the Chicago Blackhawks select Connor Bedard, center, Regina Pats of the WHL.” Those will be the most likely words uttered by commissioner Gary Bettman on Wednesday, June 28, in Nashville. After Bedard goes to the Hawks, Adam Fantilli is expected to follow at No. 2 to the Ducks. The top of the draft is cut-and-dry but after the first two, things can go in a multitude of ways. One way is Russian forward prospect Matvei Michkov going high at No. 3. Another would be Michkov dropping down the board a bit. Here we're going to go over the risk/reward of drafting Michkov in the first round.

First, we'll want to go over Michkov's situation in Russia. He's under contract with his KHL team until 2025-26. So that would mean his first potential season in North America wouldn't be until 2026-27, which is four years from now. That's a long time to wait for your first-rounder to even step foot on United States or Canadian soil. We've seen the wait pay off with Minnesota Wild wing Kirill Kaprizov, who took five seasons to come over from the KHL. There's also a scenario in which Michkov decides to stay in Russia, which is what should give teams drafting in the top-10 a bit of pause.

If we look at the teams drafting in the 3-10 range, there are certainly plenty of them who would love Michkov's offensive skill and scoring/play-making ability. This is likely the main reason he's being touted as a top 5-10 pick by many mock drafts. But even if he is 100% coming over, you still have to wait out three seasons, knowing the risk of Michkov 1) deciding to stay in Russia and 2) getting injured before playing an NHL game.

There's also the argument that it's a deep draft and there's no reason to risk it and wait with Michkov, just take another prospect. There are plenty of appealing options behind Bedard and Fantilli who aren't tied up in the KHL for three seasons. Swedish forward Leo Carlsson is among the most common players going No. 3 to the Blue Jackets in mocks. A case can also be made for forwards Will Smith, Zach Benson, Ryan Leonard and Oliver Moore. Leonard and Smith are set to be teammates at Boston College while Moore is committed to Minnesota. There's also some risk with college kids but less so if they're NHL-ready. So if these dynamic forwards exist, what separates Michkov?

Well, he's 18 years old and playing professionally in Russia. And not just producing, but at a very, very elite level. He scored 20 points in 27 KHL games in 2022-23 for HC Sochi and is expected to play for SKA Saint Petersburg. That points per game average is the highest of any draft-eligible player in KHL history. Better than Alex Ovechkin. Better than Artemi Panarin. That's the type of ceiling we're looking at for Michkov. He could end up being the next great Russian scorer. If that's the case and he drops, it could mean a scoring-starved team misses out big time.

How to approach the situation for teams

I'd lean Carlsson or Smith with the third pick instead of risking it and waiting on Michkov. Both forwards have similar upside and can play center, which is more of a need for CBJ.

Take whoever is left from Carlsson/Smith. This is mostly because I'm higher on both players than Michkov anyway. But San Jose could make a case Michkov isn't a bad move for them. The Sharks aren't anywhere close to contending and could wait out the KHL contract.

This is where things get interesting if Smith or Carlsson isn't there for the Habs. Montreal has a decent young core and could surprise and compete for a playoff spot in 2023-24. Chances are the Canadiens won't be contending. Knowing Juraj Slafkovsky is a ways away from reaching his potential, Montreal could go Michkov and hope his arrival lines up with the peak of the rebuild.

The Coyotes are such a mess and are likely moving cities before Michkov comes over. That could turn him off from wanting to sign in three years. So this doesn't feel like a good fit for either side.

If Michkov is there at No. 7 I think the Flyers have to take him. Philly's new brain trust of Daniel Briere, Keith and John LeClair could go risk-averse and take a U.S. or Canadian prospect. That feels like the most likely route.

Washington has heavy Russian ties with Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and previously Dmitry Orlov and Ilya Samsonov. There's some rumors circulating that Michkov wants to drop to the Capitals. Washington almost has to take him if he drops considering Ovechkin and Kuznetsov could be in his ear, convincing him to come over early.

  
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