The PGA TOUR’s Fall Swing continues with the final full-field event of the calendar year with The RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club.
Every player in the field will play one round at the Seaside course and another at the Plantation course on Thursday and Friday before the cut and then play the final two rounds at Seaside. The multiple courses are necessary to account for less sunlight available during the days in November.
Players with short odds have won frequently on the Fall Swing recently, including last week with Tony Finau’s victory at the Cadence Bank Houston Open.
However, Finau, the favorite to win this week, withdrew from the tournament on Tuesday, leaving this field without a clear favorite this week.
Our analysts are pouncing on the betting value without him in the field and have eight best bets, four outright picks and one potential arbitrage play (if you have access to certain books). Check out their analysis and best bets below.
Jason Sobel: We're eight events into the fall portion of the PGA Tour schedule, and Longshot SZN hasn't really happened, with seven of the winners coming from +3500 or shorter so far. There's reason to believe that could change this week, with each of the last six RSM champions starting from +4000 or longer, including three who were at least +15000.
I'll sprinkle my card with some outrights on a few of these bigger prices, like Davis Riley (+5000), Scott Stallings (+5000), Will Gordon (+6000) and Patton Kizzire (+15000), though I'll admit that none of them is a gotta-play-it bet.
Instead, I'll counterbalance the lottery tickets with a few more conservative props, and my two favorite plays in this space are McCarthy and NeSmith, a pair of guys who should be strong fits for the Seaside and Plantation tracks.
We all know McCarthy is one of the game's best putters, but what really intrigues me is that he's now improved upon his Strokes Gained Tee to Green in each of the last four seasons. He's never going to be Justin Thomas or Collin Morikawa with an iron in his hand, but going from 162nd in this category during the 2019-20 campaign to 95th currently makes a big difference.
With top 10s in two of his last three starts at Sea Island, I like him to at least replicate those performances once again.
If we could combine the best aspects of McCarthy's game with those of NeSmith, we'd really be onto something. They're essentially opposite types of players, as NeSmith does most of his damage with the irons, and yet they each fit this venue for separate reasons. Currently 27th in Strokes Gained on Approach shots after ranking 30th last season, NeSmith is running hot, with three top-10s in his last four starts.