10 betting lessons from NFL Week 7
It’s easy to be critical and negative, so to emphasize something positive, let’s start with the feel-good story. Tyson Bagent, an undrafted rookie from Division II Shepherd University in West Virginia, made his first start as an NFL quarterback Sunday and was a winner. It’s a bizarre and unbelievable story.
What makes Bagent’s fairytale even better is he’s a quarterback for the Bears, who recently stopped a 14-game losing streak. In other words, he started for a terrible team, played well and won in a blowout.
Now, here comes the negativity. The Raiders, 30-12 losers in Chicago, have hit something close to rock bottom in the Josh McDaniels era. When you get mauled by the Bears, something is terribly wrong. And to make matters worse, what happened at Soldier Field was not surprising to those who have been following (or fading) McDaniels.
“I liked the Bears,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said, “and we did very well on that game.”
The Raiders, who closed as 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings, were a popular play by the betting public. Why? Because the Bears are bad and were starting a no-name quarterback. (For the record, Murray did say last week the Bears were his best bet.)
While it’s getting difficult to defend McDaniels, who’s in the middle of his second losing season in Las Vegas, it’s simple to defend his offense. McDaniels’ offense has failed to score 20 points in any of seven games this season — the Raiders defeated New England 21-17 in Week 6, but the last two points were scored on a safety by the defense.
McDaniels’ hand-picked starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, is too physically fragile to be reliable and already has missed two starts with different injuries. McDaniels’ hand-picked backup, Brian Hoyer, lost his 13th consecutive start Sunday.
McDaniels’ game-management decisions are often baffling. He’s passive when the situation calls for being aggressive. The Raiders trailed the Bears 21-3 with 12 minutes remaining when McDaniels, who needed a touchdown to get back in the game, trotted out kicker Daniel Carlson for a 25-yard field goal.
With 5:36 to go, Hoyer threw an errant pass that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown to put Chicago up 30-6. McDaniels finally benched Hoyer, who never should have started.
“He’s obviously not a winner,” DraftKings sportsbook director John Avello said of McDaniels, who was regarded as an offensive wizard while a coordinator in New England. “He was supposed to be the brains behind the Patriots’ success. It’s looking like it was because of Tom Brady.”