VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Tuesday, August 1
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, August 1, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, NY METS
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Now, in games this season through Sunday, July 30, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 184-104 record, but for -55.74 units.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE LA DODGERS
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 41-47 for -65.86 units! Even though the R.O.I. on this system is shrinking steadily, for the season it remains at -74.8%!
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Better bullpen underdog teams have been strong out of the second-half gate
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a mediocre 12-15 (-1.26 units) performance over the last week, money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 245-251 for +53.21 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.7%!
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After a 6-9 (-1.93 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 170-166 for -33.52 units, an R.O.I. of -10%. After a 3-4 result (-1.14 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 63-80 for -21.25 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.9%.
2-Game Winning Streaks:
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI, FADE COLORADO, FADE LA ANGELS
3-Game Winning Streaks:
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 7/24 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 166-127 for +11.2 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 80-52 for +22.19 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 16.8% but it was over 50% just a few weeks ago. We’ll continue to track this hoping it turns back around soon.
2-Game Losing Streaks:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS
3+ Game Win Streaks:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE BOSTON, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE OAKLAND
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE HOUSTON, FADE SEATTLE, FADE PITTSBURGH
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Match: NY YANKEES
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 399-324 (55.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +38.97 units, for a R.O.I. of 5.4%.
System Match: LA DODGERS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 60-44 outright (+11.19 units, ROI: 10.8%).
System Match: MINNESOTA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today's UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+40), DETROIT (+16), OAKLAND (+35)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA (+18), NY METS (+37)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA-MIAMI OVER 7.5 (+0.5), MILWAUKEE-WASHINGTON OVER 8.5 (+0.6), BALTIMORE-TORONTO OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT-PITTSBURGH UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for every team.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (57-49) at (952) MIAMI (57-50)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (30-31, -9.25 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Miami not as good in division (13-17, -3.37 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami OVER in divisional games (17-11 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(953) MILWAUKEE (57-50) at (954) WASHINGTON (45-62)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (42-33, +7.00 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee bad against NL East/West (17-23, -5.60 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Washington bad at HOME (21-33, -4.95 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington bad at NIGHT (23-38, -3.00 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(955) CINCINNATI (59-49) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (53-53)
Trend: Cincinnati better vs Chicago Cubs (5-1 this season)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (36-26, +17.15 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati OVER at NIGHT (36-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago not as good vs RH starters (34-38, -6.55 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS
(957) SAN DIEGO (52-55) at (958) COLORADO (42-64)
Trend: San Diego not profitable against RH starters (31-38, -23.90 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: Colorado worse in division (7-19, -7.95 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(959) ARIZONA (57-50) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (58-49)
Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (37-27, +12.29 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: San Francisco good at NIGHT (35-24, +6.80 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (22-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(961) TAMPA BAY (65-44) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (55-51)
Trend: Tampa Bay not as good on ROAD (28-25, -4.20 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on ROAD (21-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYY not as good in NIGHT games (29-38, -15.00 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
(963) BALTIMORE (65-41) at (964) TORONTO (59-48)
Trend: Baltimore better against AL competition (50-27, +23.14 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Toronto bad in division games (7-21, -22.90 units)
System Match: FADE TORONTO
Trend: Toronto UNDER in NIGHT games (21-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto UNDER in HOME games (16-31 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(965) CHICAGO-AL (43-64) at (966) TEXAS (60-46)
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (15-30, -16.05 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Texas OVER in HOME games (31-19 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(967) CLEVELAND (53-54) at (968) HOUSTON (60-47)
Trend: Cleveland worse against LH starters (17-21, -13.05 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Houston not as good for bettors at HOME (29-25, -9.70 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(969) BOSTON (56-50) at (970) SEATTLE (55-51)
Trend: Boston better against AL competition (38-28, +11.25 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Seattle slight OVER in NIGHT games (37-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(971) DETROIT (47-59) at (972) PITTSBURGH (47-58)
Trend: Detroit OVER in NIGHT games (32-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh not good in interleague games (13-22, -8.65 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh OVER in NIGHT games (33-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(973) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-51) at (974) ATLANTA (67-37)
Trend: LAA UNDER against NL competition (12-18 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA worse against NL competition (14-18, -9.20 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA good against RH starters (45-33, +10.30 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: Atlanta not as good against AL teams (21-20, -10.00 units)
System Match: FADE ATLANTA