Sunday was a very long, but very exciting day in the Tuley’s Take home office with wall-to-wall games starting here in Las Vegas at 6:30 a.m. PT until nearly 8:30 p.m. PT, at which time I prepared to go on VSiN’s The Greg Peterson Experience” to recap all of the NFL Week 10 action and give some early picks for NFL Week 11.
And we loved every minute of it. It also helped that the Seahawks rallied from a 21-3 deficit, which we mostly slept through, only to wake up to see them lose 21-16 to the Buccaneers but complete our 2-team, 6-point teaser from Thursday (Panthers +8.5 in a 25-15 upset of the Falcons) and also kick off another teaser to the Lions +8.5 (they later rallied to beat the Bears 31-30). We did lose some contest plays like the Jaguars +9.5 at the Chiefs, though we didn’t bet it as we never were able to get the +10 we wanted (as it turned out, the insurance of a push was very important as they lost 27-17). It was another example of how important it is to be selective and shop for the best numbers. Another example was our play that we gave out last Sunday night on Peterson’s show and in this Monday column on the Vikings +7.5 at the Bills. We were lucky to get that number, especially when Josh Allen became doubtful and the line dropped to Bills -3.5. As it turned out, he ended up starting and playing great, but we ultimately had the right side as the Vikings rallied to win 33-30 in OT in what might be the craziest game we’ve ever seen. The end of regulation was crazy as it looked like the Bills were going to hold on for a 27-23 victory (which we woulda covered anyway) until Allen fumbled the snap while trying to run out the clock and the Vikings recovered for the go-ahead TD only to have Allen drive the Bills for a FG to force OT. It reminded everyone (or at least those old enough to remember) of “The Miracle in the Meadowlands) a week short of 44 years ago in 1978 when the Giants were trying to run out the clock of a 17-12 victory only to have QB Joe Pisarcik and RB Larry Csonka botch a handoff and have Herman Edwards (yes, that Herman Edward) scoop-and-score for a 19-17 Eagles victory. Again, while it was exciting to watch, it probably saved a heart attack from having the best number. We weren’t feeling so confident with our Best Bet of the day on the Packers +5 vs. the Cowboys when they fell behind 28-14, but Aaron Rodgers came through with a rally and a 31-28 OT victory. The day ended with the Chargers covering +7 in a 22-16 loss at the 49ers. All in all, I had favorites and underdogs splitting 6-6 ATS on the day, so again it was important to be selective to find the right dogs. Like we always do on Monday, let’s recap all of Sunday’s action (including updating our season-long betting stats), take a peek in Contest Corner with a Circa Survivor update and how the Top 5 consensus plays did in Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest, then give our Best Bet on Monday Night Football and early picks for NFL Week 11 to do this all over again!Sunday’s Recaps
NFL: 49ers rallied to beat Chargers 22-16 on Sunday Night Football but did NOT cover after closing as 8-point home favorites (game stayed Under 45.5). Overall on Sunday faves went 7-5 SU but just 6-6 ATS. Home teams went 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS (1 neutral-site game in Germany); Over/Unders tied 6-6.
More NFL: Faves lead 88-58-1 SU on season w/ 2 PKs, but dogs still lead 81-60-6 ATS (57.4%); home teams 81-63-1 SU w/ 4 neutral-site games, but road teams still lead 70-69-6 ATS (50.4%); Unders lead 86-61-2 (58.5%) & primetime Unders improved to 19-10-1 (65.5%).
Even more NFL: Faves went 6-2 SU & ATS in early games (including Buccaneers beating Seahawks 21-16 and covering as 2.5-point favorites in Germany) with upsets by the Vikings (+6.5 at Bills) and Lions (+3 at Bears). Home teams went 5-2 SU and ATS (not counting game in Germany). Unders led 5-3. In the afternoon games, dogs went 3-0 ATS with all 3 outright upsets by the Colts (+4.5 at Raiders), Packers (+3.5 in OT vs. Cowboys) and Cardinals (+3.5 at Rams). Road teams went 2-1 SU and ATS while all 3 games went Over their betting totals.