Saturday was a very busy day in the Tuley’s Takes home office, though it was surprisingly bereft of college basketball action with one Top 25 team playing.
Still, there were enough college football games to go around to keep us entertained throughout the day. Unfortunately, we lost out Best Best on Western Kentucky +5.5 at Auburn as the Hilltoppers were tied 17-17 at halftime but got run over the rest of the game in a 41-17 loss. That snapped a 6-day winning streak with our top play of the day, but we’re still having a killer month as we’re 10-2 ATS (83.%) the last 12 days and 14-5 ATS (78.9%) the first 19 days of November. We did end up 2-2 ATS with our college football plays as we won with Iowa +2.5 at Minnesota and Texas Tech +3.5 at Iowa State as they both pulled minor upsets but lost with Oklahoma State +7.5 at Oklahoma. We also spent part of the day putting in plays for our proxy clients in Las Vegas’ big handicapping contests and then reporting on the Circa contest consensus plays for our VSiN.com website in my weekly column each Saturday night after the selections are released. You can check that out HERE. Let’s get to the rest of Saturday’s recaps and then give our Best Bets for Sunday’s NFL action based on the current lines as of early Sunday. Then, as has become our custom here, we’ll update our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 11 schedule.Saturday’s Recaps
CFB: No. 4 TCU escaped with a 29-28 win at Baylor on a frantic 40-yard field goal with a running clock as time expired from kicker who missed an earlier PAT (coach said “it wasn't as frantic as it looked”). The ViewFromVegas is the Horned Frogs did NOT cover as 2-point road favorites. No. 3 Michigan escaped with a 19-17 win vs. Illinois on FG with 9 seconds to play to stay undefeated just like TCU. The Wolverines never came close to covering as 17-point home favorites. No. 1 Georgia (-22.5) only beat Kentucky 16-6 and No. 2 Ohio State (-26.5) only beat Maryland 43-30 as both also failed to cover.
More CFB: South Carolina routed No. 5 Tennessee 63-38 as 23-point home dogs and +1100 on the money line with a high of +1275 at Circa Sports. In Saturday's only 2 CFB games between ranked teams, No. 7 USC beat Los Angeles inner-city rival No. 16 UCLA 48-45, covering as 2.5-point “road” underdog in Rose Bowl and No. 12 Oregon beat No. 10 Utah 20-17 in game that closed a consensus pick-'em.
CBB: No. 21 Dayton was the only ranked team in action on Saturday and beat Robert Morris 60-51, but did NOT cover as a 20.5-point home favorite.
NBA: Faves went 4-1 SU, but dogs led 4-1 ATS with upset by Jazz (+4.5 at Blazers) while Raptors (+5.5 at Hawks), Magic (+7.5 at Pacers) and 76ers (+3.5 vs. Timberwolves) all covered in SU losses. The Clippers (-9 in 119-97 win vs. Spurs) were the only fave to cover. Home teams went 3-2 SU, but road teams led 3-2 ATS. Overs 4-1.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 150-80 SU with 4 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 117-104-9 ATS (52.9%). Home teams lead 142-92 SU and 116-109-9 ATS (51.6%). Overs' lead in totals wagering dipped to 116-113-5 (50.7%).
NHL: Faves went 12-3 Saturday with only upsets by Flames (+120 at Panthers), Wild (+105 vs. Hurricanes) and Oilers (+100 vs. Golden Knights). Home teams went 8-7 while Overs were also 8-7. On the season, faves lead 164-117 with 8 PKs. Home teams lead 53-132 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders dipped to 142-139-8.
Sunday’s Best Bets
There are our top plays on Sunday at the current prices. More details below in our “takes” on each game.
Panthers +13 at Ravens
Colts +6.5 vs. Eagles Lions +3 at Giants Steelers +4 vs. Bengals Bills -1.5/Raiders +8.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser)Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the complete NFL schedule.
Week 10 was another successful weekend in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Underdogs had another winning week in the NFL by going 8-6 ATS against the consensus closing lines from the books here in Las Vegas (and note that includes the Steelers closing as 1-point home favorites after being a short dog all week), but we fared even better as we went 4-2 ATS with Best Bets in last week’s column with wins on Broncos-Titans Under 38.5, Packers +4 vs. Cowboys, Chargers +7.5 at 49ers and Commanders +11 vs. Eagles but losses on Texans +4.5 at Giants and Jaguars +9.5 at Chiefs (though we warned readers we needed +10 to bet it and didn’t get it, but we’ll take the loss here as we did use it in some contests). We also had another winner with Vikings +7.5 from last Sunday night/Monday morning and hit all of our listed 2-team, 6-point teasers with Panthers +8.5/Lions +8.5, Seahawks +8.5/Lions +8.5 and Steelers +8.5/Lio ns +8.5 (we also recommended Cardinals in teasers, so hopefully some readers cashed in there as well). I could go on and on about how well the “dog-or-pass philosophy” has been working this season, but you’re here for the picks, or maybe to see which dogs I’m unable to make a case for so you can bet the chalk. So, without further ado, let’s tackle the full NFL Week 11 card. Even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I’ll give my “pool play” strategies for those in contests where you have to pick every game. At the end, we’ll do an abbreviated version of our regular daily recaps on Tuesday night’s action (we hit our Best Bet on the biggest NHL dog of the day with the Sharks +240 over the Golden Knights) and then take a look at Wednesday’s betting card as we get ready for the weekend. Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3)The Thursday nighter has lost some luster with the slow start by the Packers (4-6), but they are coming off their 31-28 come-from-behind win vs. the Cowboys as 5-point home dogs. I’ve done very well in Green Bay games whether I’ve been fading them (Week 1 at Vikings, Week 5 vs. Giants, Week 7 vs. Jets and Week 9 at Lions) or backing them (Week 3 at Buccaneers, Week 8 at Bills as they covered +10.5 in a 27-17 loss and Week 10 at Cowboys). We’re back to fading them here with the Titans, who rebounded themselves from a slow (0-2) start as they’re 6-1 straight-up since then with the only loss at the Chiefs in Week 9, though they covered as 14-point dogs in the 20-17 loss, so they’ve covered seven straight. Tennessee mostly relies on a strong defense (No. 8 in points allowed at 18.7 points per game) and RB Derrick Henry (second in NFL with 923 rushing yards), though QB Ryan Tannehill did return to the starting lineup and threw 2 TD passes in the 1 7-10 win vs. the Broncos that should be just the kind of low-scoring game that they’ll try to get into with the Packers here.
Best Bet: Titans +3 or better (pool play: Titans in all my rare contests that use the Thursday Night Football game).
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-12)
We gave this out on “The Greg Peterson’ Experience” on Sunday night and in Monday’s version of this column as we’ve said time and again this season that parity is alive and well even though the public perception out there is that there's a wide gap between the haves and have-nots. We feel validated by the fact that double-digits underdogs are 9-4 ATS against the closing lines. The Ravens usually lead by double digits in every game, but their defense has given up a lot of leads this year. The Panthers are playing better despite trading away RB Christian McCaffrey and are coming off a mini-bye after upsetting the Falcons 25-15 in the Week 10 Thursday nighter. I actually like the move to start Baker Mayfield over the injured PJ Walker as I believe that gives them the best chance to cover.
Best Bet: Panthers +12 (pool play: Panthers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 90/10 in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-8)
I’m certainly tempted to fade the Bills again as I’ve cashed by going against them each of the last three weeks with the Packers, Jets and VIkings. As I’ve written before, they tend to play close games, but while Nick Chubb and the Browns’ running game gives them a chance to shorten the game and stay close, I’m just not comfortable trusting Jacoby Brissett to keep up with Josh Allen. With that being said, I think this is a good spot to start our Week 11 teaser portfolio with 2-team, 6 point teasers. Now, while this is a “Wong teaser” (I like to call them “advantage teasers”) as we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7, moving the favorites down hasn't been as strong this season. Regardless, I’ll pair this with my preferred dog teasers on the Raiders +8.5 at the Broncos and Vikings +7.5 (DraftKings down to Cowboys -1 as of early Wednesday, but some books are still at 1.5). Another possibility is teasing the 49ers down from -8 to -2 vs. the Cardinals in Mexico City on Monday night, though that’s a less-desirable play as I like the Cards as a live dog.
Best Bet: Bills -2/Raiders +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teaser and others (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 85/15 in SU pools).
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts
This is a similar situation to the Vikings last week when I took +7.5 on Sunday night and that disappeared when it was first reported that Allen wasn’t going to play. Later in the week in this column, I couldn’t give out the Vikings +3.5 in good conscience (with +7.5 in my proverbial pocket). This week, I gave out Colts +9.5 on Sunday night as I loved the value against an Eagles team that was undefeated at the time but was just 5-3-1 ATS with non-covering wins vs. the Lions, Cardinals and Texans. Of course, the Eagles went out on Monday Night Football and lost 32-21 to the Commanders, so this line has now been adjusted under a touchdown to Eagles -6.5. Personally, I’m not willing to bet on the Colts +6.5 when I already have +9.5 (and I don’t have to), but I’m left with a hard decision about whether to take them in my contests like the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest. I do like interim coach Jeff Saturday’ m ove to go back to Matt Ryan as the starting QB as it gives them the best chance to succeed. In fact, in last week’s column I wrote: “If Matt Ryan were to be put back into the starting QB job, I would be willing to take the points with the Colts, but not with Sam Ehlinger,” so my biggest regret of Week 10 was not taking the Colts. When it comes down to it, I’m probably going to take them in contests as regular readers will recognize this as an anti-swagger spot against the Eagles after having their 8-game losing streak snapped.
Best Bet: Colts +6.5 or higher even though we have better number in pocket (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, but Eagles still 67/33 in SU pools).