The New York Yankees (+100) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Sunday, May 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Yankees are 37-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 28-27 ATS.

Yankees vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt 5-2, 2.59 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 3-4, 6.24 ERA

Yankees vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Yankees vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:

• Anthony Volpe has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 18 games (+16.90 Units / 43% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 21 games (+16.30 Units / 59% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+15.25 Units / 80% ROI)
• Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+14.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.00 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 39 games (+21.80 Units / 56% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 48 games (+17.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 23 games at home (+17.25 Units / 40% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.10 Units / 60% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+16.20 Units / 34% ROI)

Yankees Best Bets Today:

• The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 20 games (+15.90 Units / 66% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 20 games (+14.65 Units / 59% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 23 games (+13.35 Units / 38% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 54 games (+13.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 36% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+11.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.40 Units / 14% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 31-23 against the Run Line (+12.2 Units / 18.61% ROI).

• 37-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.05 Units / 16.34% ROI
• 23-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.65 Units / -14.64% ROI
• 29-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 6.27% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 28-27 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 3.69% ROI).

• 27-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.8 Units / -9.71% ROI
• 29-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 3.09% ROI
• 25-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.2 Units / -11.76% ROI

Padres vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The average home run distance against Clarke Schmidt since the 2022 season is 380.7 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 398.3

Clarke Schmidt has walked 11 of 90 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.

Clarke Schmidt has struck out 35% (39/112) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Clarke Schmidt has a strikeout rate of 34% (31 SO in 90 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.0 MPH against his fastballs since the 2022 season (304 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 90.7

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (97/304) against Joe Musgrove on fastballs since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .463 (38-for-82) against Joe Musgrove in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .319 — first Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of .760 (19 Total Bases / 25 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .363 — 0 Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

  
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