Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 5-4-2023

Toronto Blue Jays (18-12) vs. Boston Red Sox (17-14)

The 2023 Major League Baseball season goes on Thursday, May 4, with the Toronto Blue Jays taking on the Boston Red Sox in the AL East showdown at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, and the first pitch is set for 6:10 PM ET.  

Toronto and Boston wrap up a four-game series. The Red Sox have won the first two contests, 6-5 and 7-6, while the third game has been excluded from the analysis. Toronto is a -155 moneyline fave for Thursday’s closer, and the totals sit at 9.5 runs.

The Toronto Blue Jays extended their losing streak to three games following Tuesday’s 7-6 defeat at Fenway Park. After finishing the month of April with a ten-inning 10-8 loss to the Seattle Mariners, the Blue Jays’ pitching staff continued to struggle in Boston. The right-handed closer Jordan Romano was charged with a loss in Monday’s opener at Fenway Park, and Erik Swanson yielded a tie-breaking homer in the eighth inning of the second game. 

The Blue Jays are allowing 4.37 runs per game (tied-13th in the majors). Over the last seven days, the Jays’ pitching staff has amassed a 4.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .266 opposing batting average, while their bullpen has accounted for a strong 2.91 ERA and 13.3 K/9. On the other side of the ball, the Blue Jays have slashed just .237/.308/.362 in the last seven days and 177 at-bats. 

Kevin Gausman will take the mound Wednesday, and the 32-year-old righty is 2-2 with an excellent 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 54/6 K/BB ratio in six starts (38.2 innings pitched) this season. Gausman has been outstanding over his previous two showings, striking out 24 across 14 shutout innings. He ranks in the 70th percentile in expected batting average and the 53rd percentile in expected slugging percentage. 

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