The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Thursday, May 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.

This season, the Padres are 26-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 27-22 ATS.

Padres vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 2-5, 5.04 ERA
• Reds starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 2-3, 4.38 ERA

Padres vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 away games (+30.00 Units / 143% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 48 games (+20.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 41 games (+13.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+13.20 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 39 games (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.85 Units / 44% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.80 Units / 61% ROI)
• Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+9.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 35 games (+8.40 Units / 23% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 26 away games (+13.95 Units / 41% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 away games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.65 Units / 27% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 21 games at home (+14.90 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in their last 9 games at home (+9.10 Units / 82% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games (+0.45 Units / 5% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 27-25 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 5.93% ROI).

• 26-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -8.33% ROI
• 27-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 1.5% ROI
• 24-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -10.23% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 27-22 against the Run Line (+2.95 Units / 4.46% ROI).

• 20-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.15 Units / -17.7% ROI
• 23-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.95 Units / -7.27% ROI
• 24-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -2.71% ROI

Reds vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Matt Waldron has allowed an OPS of 1.186 (78 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .732 — 0 Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .433 (13-for-30) against Matt Waldron this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 25% (18/71) against Matt Waldron against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (9/74) against Matt Waldron on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 25% (99/395) against Frankie Montas since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 59% of Frankie Montas’ fastballs (190/324) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 99th Percentile.

Frankie Montas has struck out just 14% (12/84) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 22% — ninth Percentile.

Frankie Montas has thrown his fastball for a strike 73% (238/324) of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 97th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

  
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