Padres vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 22
Padres vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 22

The San Diego Padres (-120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+100) on Wednesday, May 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.

This season, the Padres are 25-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 27-21 ATS.

Padres vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 3-4, 4.34 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 1-2, 4.19 ERA

Padres vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 away games (+30.00 Units / 143% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 47 games (+19.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+15.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.85 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+12.20 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 38 games (+11.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 31 games (+9.60 Units / 26% ROI)

  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 away games (+12.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 away games (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.70 Units / 35% ROI)

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 20 games at home (+13.90 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in their last 8 games at home (+8.10 Units / 82% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+1.45 Units / 20% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 26-25 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 3.96% ROI).

  • 25-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -10.02% ROI
  • 26-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.27% ROI
  • 24-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -8.33% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 27-21 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 6.88% ROI).

  • 20-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.15 Units / -16.24% ROI
  • 22-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -9.28% ROI
  • 24-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.48% ROI

Reds vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) 0.5 +250 0.5 -300
Mike Ford (CIN) 0.5 +340 0.5 -450
Spencer Steer (CIN) 0.5 +375 0.5 -500
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550

Reds vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Donovan Solano (SD) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Jurickson Profar (SD) 0.5 -225 0.5 +175
Luis Campusano (SD) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160

Reds vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +110 0.5 -145
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) 0.5 +120 0.5 -160
Spencer Steer (CIN) 0.5 +125 0.5 -165
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Mike Ford (CIN) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190

Reds vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove (SD) 4.5 -120 4.5 -105
Andrew Abbott (CIN) 4.5 +105 4.5 -135

Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.069 (31 Total Bases / 29 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .409 — first Percentile.

Michael King has walked 26 of 237 batters (11%) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

Michael King has walked 26 of 237 batters (11%) this season — tied for 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — seventh Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .256 (41-for-160) against Michael King’s elevated fastball since the 2022 season — 13th highest among among 114 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .205 — 11th Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .417 (15-for-36) against Nick Martinez on low fastballs since last season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .268 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .366 (30-for-82) against Nick Martinez on low fastballs since the 2022 season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .270 — eighth Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 35% of Nick Martinez’s breaking pitches (257/740) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.

Nick Martinez has located his fastball inside 57% of the time (122/213) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

  
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