Orioles-Rays prediction: Picks, odds on Wednesday, June 21

After drawing first blood in this crucial showdown between the top two teams in the AL East, the Baltimore Orioles will be after a two-game sweep of the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday afternoon. First pitch from Tropicana Field is set for 12:05 p.m. ET. Tyler Wells (6-2, 3.20 ERA) will get the ball for the O's, while rookie Taj Bradley (4-3, 4.19) starts for Tampa.

The Rays enter as the -150 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Baltimore the +130 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.

Orioles

Day to Day: 3B Gunnar Henderson (stomach flu)
Out: 1B Ryan Mountcastle (illness), OF Cedric Mullins (groin), C James McCann (ankle), RP Mychal Givens (shoulder)

Rays

Out: RP Calvin Faucher (elbow), 2B Brandon Lowe (back)

Tyler Wells vs. Taj Bradley

Wells has been a revelation for an Orioles team in need of reliable starting pitching. The righty has the lowest WHIP of any qualified starter at 0.857, and he hasn't allowed more than two earned runs since May 24 – with three quality starts over his last four outings. With elite command (90th-percentile walk rate), Wells works largely off his fastball and changeup, elevating the former for weak fly balls while consistently locating the latter at or below the bottom of the zone for swings and misses. It's not the most explosive arsenal, but he rarely makes mistakes over the heart of the plate, and he's been awfully hard to square up so far this year.

The Rays' top pitching prospect entering the season, Bradley's got electric stuff – he's struck out 63 batters in just 43 innings – but he's had trouble harnessing it into effective outings on a consistent basis. The 22-year-old has gone past the fifth inning twice in nine starts, lasting just 3.2 frames last time out against the Oakland Athletics despite racking up 11 Ks. (Three walks and four hits certainly didn't help.) Although he has one of the most powerful fastballs of any starter in baseball, his curve and changeup are lagging behind, leaving him without a true putaway pitch and causing his pitch counts to soar.

Despite an 8-6 final on Tuesday night, I'm backing the under this afternoon. Prior to yesterday's loss, Tampa had fallen short of this total in five of their last seven as their offense cools off a bit after a historic start. Wells has been consistently giving the O's six innings of two- or three-run ball, and I think Bradley's pure stuff will help him navigate this Baltimore lineup. (Two very good bullpens will only help things.)

Pick: Under 8.5

The O's are the hotter team with the better starting pitcher, and they've got plus odds? This isn't quite the same Tampa team that took the Majors by storm over the first month-plus; Wells is more than capable of shoving in this spot, while Bradley gets himself into a bit too much trouble for me to trust him as the favorite today.

Pick: Orioles

  
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