Thanksgiving Week has arrived and we have three games on Thursday: Bills–Lions, Giants–Cowboys and Patriots–Vikings.
Let’s look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to the Thanksgiving special of Action Network’s NFL betting primer.
Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 43-8 straight up (SU) and 35-16 against the spread (ATS).
In that span, road favorites are 23-1 SU and 19-5 ATS on Thanksgiving with the only loss coming back in 2009, when the Giants lost to the Broncos, 26-6.
Betting Thanksgiving in the past has been as easy as following the crowds.
- Favorites with 60%+ of tickets are 20-7 ATS'
- Public sides (51%+ of tickets) are 30-17 ATS'
- Public sides, who are favorites, are 27-12 ATS'
Public sides are .500 ATS or better every year since 2014 and nine of the last 10 years.
Both the Bills and Cowboys are big favorites this week and we could see some history…
Biggest Upsets on Thanksgiving since 1980
- 1993 — Dolphins +10 over DAL
- 2015 — Bears +7.5 over GB
- 1986 — Seahawks +7.5 over DAL
- 2021 — Raiders +7 over DAL
- 1993 — Bears +7 over DET
- 1989 — Lions +7 over CLE
Thanksgiving Day Slate'
Game-By-Game Breakdown
|
Bills at Lions' Channel: CBS | 12:30 p.m. ET (THU) Line: BUF (-9.5) | O/U: 54 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
| 4-5-1 ATS 7-3 SU | 41-30-5 ATS 49-27 SU | 20-14-2 ATS 20-16 SU |
| Jared Goff, DET | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
| 6-4 ATS 4-6 SU | 51-45-2 ATS 51-46-1 SU | 23-22-2 ATS 25-22 SU |
+ The over/under for Bills-Lions is north of 50. Totals of at least 50 played on Thursday are 24-14-1 to the under over the last 20 years.
+ Bills road unders are 5-0 this season, going under by 10.8 PPG.
+ The Bills have played twice on Thanksgiving since 2019 with Josh Allen. They are 2-0 SU/ATS, covering by 17.8 PPG.
+ Allen is only 6-6-1 ATS on short rest in his career. He's 32-23-4 ATS on seven days of rest or more.
- After an eight-point win over the Browns, Buffalo is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games. Allen has never failed to cover five straight starts.
- Favorites of a TD or more are 12-23-1 ATS this season.
+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills’ second half. Under Allen, they are 46-26-3 (64%) against the second half spread. Scared to ride Buffalo after they lead at the half? Don't. The Bills are 29-14-1 (67%) against the second half spread when leading at the half.
Detroit’s Struggles on Thanksgiving…
+ Home underdogs are 2-26 SU on Thanksgiving since 2000 and 1-21 SU since ’05.
+ Lions are 3-18 SU, 7-14 ATS as a dog on Thanksgiving in Wild Card era (since 1990).
+ Lions have lost 15 consecutive games SU as an underdog on Thanksgiving.
+ Road favs vs Lions on Thanksgiving since 2005: 13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS covering by 9 PPG.
+ Lions last entered Thanksgiving on a 3-game win streak in 2017 (only other time since 2000).
Best of the Rest…
+ Lions have won three straight games SU for the first time since 2017. They haven't won four straight SU since ’16.
+ Jared Goff is 2-0 ATS on short rest with the Lions. He’s started one game on Thanksgiving, a 16-14 loss, but covered (+2.5) vs. the Bears last year.
+ Goff is 2-8 ATS in his last 10 starts coming off a double-digit win.
+ The over is 7-3 in the last ten Lions games on Thanksgiving since 2012.
+ Since 2005, teams to win by double-digits the week before Thanksgiving are 18-9 ATS (7-1 ATS since ’16).
|
Giants at Cowboys' |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
| 7-3 ATS 7-3 SU | 26-21 ATS 19-28 SU | 14-7 ATS 7-14 SU |
| Dak Prescott, DAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
| 3-2 ATS 3-2 SU | 51-41-2 ATS 57-37 SU | 25-23-1 ATS 32-17 SU |
+ Giants and Cowboys are both 7-3 SU/ATS this season. This is the first matchup of teams with a 70%+ SU/ATS win percentage in November or later since Panthers/Packers back in 2015, and the only other time since ’12.
+ Giants are TD underdogs this week. In November or later, 70%+ win pct SU & ATS teams who are TD dogs are 10-7 ATS and 3-0 ATS over the last five years.
+ Giants have played twice on Thanksgiving in the last 20 years: 0-2 SU/ATS
+ Saquon Barkley is currently second in the NFL in rushing yards. He was 25-1 to lead the category before the season started.
- Giants are 5-1 SU and ATS as underdogs this season, with their only loss in their last game as a dog in Seattle.