Sunday's early game in Germany and a Monday Night Football contest bookend our card of NFL best bets for Week 10 based on the best NFL odds.
The unofficial start to the second half of the NFL season brings no shortage of great betting opportunities, beginning with the Indianapolis Colts' early clash with the New England Patriots in Germany.
Other notable Week 10 matchups include the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Cleveland Browns in a key AFC North battle, and the struggling Buffalo Bills trying to right the ship when they welcome the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.
To accompany our Week 10 NFL predictions, Week 10 player props, and Week 10 parlay predictions, here are our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Week 10 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Week 10
- Indianapolis Colts -2 vs. New England Patriots (-108 via DraftKings) ???
- Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Under 47 (-110 via Caesars) ????
- Detroit Lions -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-105 via Caesars) ????
- Denver Broncos first-quarter spread +1.5 vs Buffalo Bills (-102 via FanDuel) ?????
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Week 10 NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via FanDuel)
- Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at New England Patriots
- San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- New Orleans Saints (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
- Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
- Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
- Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
- Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
- Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-17.5)
- Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
- New York Jets (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders
- Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills (-7)
NFL predictions for Week 10
The Indianapolis Colts don't come to mind when ranking the top offenses in the NFL, but their attack might be the most consistent. Indy has yet to be held below 20 points this season (even if it needed two defensive TDs to extend that streak last week against the Carolina Panthers), giving the Colts a chance to win any game in which they can hold down the opposition.
That shouldn't be a problem against the 2-7 New England Patriots. Mac Jones and Co. have managed 17 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games, the one exception coming against a banged-up Buffalo Bills defense three weeks ago. The Pats have now covered just two of their last 13 games going back to last season, and with rumors starting to swirl that Bill Belichick's tenure could be soon coming to an end, focus and motivation could also be lacking for this trip to Germany.
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Joe Burrow's recovery from a calf injury is the biggest reason the Cincinnati Bengals have won four straight after a 1-3 start, but don't sleep on the play of Cincy's defense. Over the past three weeks, the Bengals have held the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks to an average of just 16 points per game.
Meanwhile, Houston Texans rookie C.J. Stroud was the talk of the league last week after throw ing for 470 yards and five touchdowns in a wild 39-37 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Prior to that, however, Stroud averaged 175 passing yards in back-to-back games against the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints. Houston has also struggled to generate offense consistently on the road, managing 19 points or fewer in three of four outings this year.
Considering the highest total for a Texans game so far this season is 43.5, this number is an overreaction to what we saw from Stroud last week. Also, the Bengals are expected to be without Tee Higgins, and Ja'Marr Chase could be limited by a back injury.
It may look like all is right again with the Los Angeles Chargers after back-to-back wins by a combined 38 points, but we're not convinced. Los Angeles had just 14 first downs and less than 200 total yards in Monday night's 27-6 win over the New York Jets, a game in which the Chargers returned a punt 87 yards for a touchd own and recovered three New York fumbles.
Los Angeles now returns home on a short week to host the rested Detroit Lions, who won five of six games before enjoying a bye last week. The Lions' offense is better on fast-turf surfaces like SoFi Stadium, and Jared Goff could have a field day against the Chargers' last-ranked pass defense. Defensively, Detroit ranks third against the run and can shut down Austin Ekeler, who was LA's biggest producer last week against New York.
Slow starts have plagued the Buffalo Bills over the last five games, a stretch in which Buffalo has gone 2-3 straight up and 0-5 against the spread. Buffalo has been outscored 38-10 in the first quarter over those five games, and the Bills have trailed after the opening 15 minutes in four of those contests.
While Buffalo has allowed opponents to score on nearly 41% of first-quarter drives this season, Denver has been at its best in the opening frame, putting up points on 47.1% of its first-quarter possessions – the second-highest rate in the NFL. Since being blown out 70-20 by the Miami Dolphins in September, the Broncos have won the first quarter in four of five games.
With so much pressure on Josh Allen and the Bills to turn things around in a primetime home game, don't be surprised if Buffalo is tight once again early and the Broncos take advantage.
NFL best bets made 11/10/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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