The last time the Michigan Wolverines played the Washington Huskies was on Sept. 11, 2021, at the Big House in Ann Arbor. The game would mark Blake Corum's coming-out party, as the compact running back ran roughshod over the Huskies for 172 yards and three touchdowns in leading Michigan to a 31-10 win.'
Corum's backfield partner, Hassan Haskins, was pretty good too, rushing for 155 yards and a score of his own, and the fact that the Wolverines only passed for 44 yards just served to show how utterly ineffective Washington was at stopping the run.
That Washington team, it's worth noting, sucked. It went on to finish the season with a woeful 4-8 record, with head coach Jimmy Lake dismissed late in the campaign. With Kalen DeBoer at the helm the following season and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. acquired through the transfer portal, the Huskies went 10-2, finishing with seven straight victories.
That winning streak is now at 21 as the 14-0 Huskies prepare to face 14-0 Michigan in Monday's national championship game. The matchup presents a fascinating study in contrasts: pass-happy Washington and its bend-don't-break defense versus Michigan's stout defense and its throwback commitment to the ground game.
Favor futures over moneyline
America's betting apps are in lockstep in making the top-ranked Wolverines 4.5-point favorites, although the odds – -105 on Michigan covering versus -115 on Washington doing so at both BetMGM and ESPN BET – reflect what an unnamed FanDuel trader said in an email this week: “The public has been all over Washington after their upset win over Texas. We have seen a significant disparity in bets on both the moneyline and spread in favor of Washington.”
As of Thursday, 64% of bets and 62% of handle at FanDuel were on Washington to cover. On the moneyline (-194 on Michigan, +160 on Washington), 73% of bets were on Washington, though the handle was split 50/50.
If'bettors want to wager on the moneyline, however, they'd be best served by shifting to the futures markets at either ESPN BET or BetRivers. Whereas a moneyline bet on Michigan to win at BetRivers is -186, essentially the same bet can be made at -177 in the sportsbook's futures market. For Washington backers, there's more value betting in ESPN BET's futures market, where the Huskies are at +175 to win the national championship, than on the moneyline, where they're +160.
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The total for the game is a consensus 55.5 points, with BetMGM and ESPN BET offering -105 on the under versus -115 on the over.
They do run, run, run
While Michigan has been favored in every game on its relatively soft schedule, Monday will mark the fourth contest that the Huskies will enter as an underdog. They're 3-0 in those games, defeating Oregon State, Oregon, and, in the national semifinals, Texas.
But as Bennett Conlin pointed out on Sports Handle's sister site, MI Bets, Michigan is 3-0 against the spread when favored by less than a touchdown this season.
Washington leads the country in averaging 350 passing yards per game, and Penix threw for 420 while avoiding getting sacked Monday against a Texas defensive line considered by many to be the best in the country. Of course, Washington's offensive line is also regarded as the best in college football. In a battle of strength-on-strength, the Huskies were stronger.
Michigan's secondary is more capable than the Longhorns', but it's safe to say that if the Huskies' O-line can adequately protect Penix, Washington stands a very good chance of pulling off the upset. On the flip side, Washington's run defense is exploitable, yielding 180 yards on 28 carries to a Texas team that probably should have run more.
As evidenced by Michigan's decision not to attempt a pass in the second half of a November victory over Penn State, as well as the aforementioned 2021 trampling of that vastly inferior Washington squad, nobody on the Wolverines' sideline will need to be nudged into handing off the ball to Corum and his comrades ad nauseam.