If you were to tell me that Justin Verlander pitched 6.2 innings in Game 1 of the ALCS at home, allowed just 2 earned runs, and the first four batters in the Texas Rangers' lineup were held to a 1-for-16 night, I'd be willing to bet the Astros were up 1-0 in the series. However, it was just the opposite, as the Rangers won 2-0 on a masterful starting pitching performance from left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who held Hou ston scoreless through 6.1 innings. This afternoon, Houston looks to even the series as they send Framber Valdez to the mound opposite Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi. I've looked at the matchups today and put together a 3-leg parlay available at FanDuel Sportsbook with a payout at +838.
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Alternate total over 7.5 (-140)
I don't mind taking over 8.5 runs at even money, but sometimes it's nice to give yourself a little wiggle room in a parlay, which is exactly what I'm doing here. 'The Astros were blanked on 5 hits last and both teams finished 1-for-3 with runners in scoring position. While I think we're going to see a few lower scoring throughout this series as we did in Game 1, I'm not projecting that to happen this afternoon. Nathan Eovaldi has been a big game pitcher throughout his career, registering a 2.70 ERA across 56.2 postseason innings, including a 1.32 ERA through 2 starts this postseason. However, Eovaldi's last start against the Astros was arguably his worst outing of the season after he failed to make it out of the second inning, surrendering 4 earned runs on 5 hits and 2 home runs. That start began an awful month of September for Eovaldi, as he finished with a 9.30 ERA across 6 starts. I think Eovaldi finishes somewhere in between his blowup start against the Astros in September and his recent success this postseason before Bruce Bochy looks to his bullpen.
For Houston, they turn to left-hander Framber Valdez, who also has a tremendous amount of postseason experience, albeit shaky at times. Valdez' last start came against the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS, where he allowed 5 earned runs across 4.1 innings, only adding to his second half struggles. Since the All-Star break, Valdez has registered a 4.66 ERA across 14 starts as compared to his 2.51 ERA through the first 17 starts of the season. One major reason for concern with Valdez has been the drop off he's experienced this season when it comes to inducing ground balls. Although his 55.2% ground ball rate is still well above league average, it pales in comparison to the 70.4% mark posted in 2021, followed by a 67.4% mark a season ago. I find it difficult to believe that neither team takes advantage of the generous left field at Minute Maid Park for a second consecutive game.