We have a 12-game MLB slate ahead of us on Thursday and I’ve picked out the 3 plays I like most. I’m 6-2-1 with these picks in my last 3 articles, so let’s hope to keep that good run going.
Today I am targeting a couple of first 5-inning money line plays and a first-inning prop bet, so let’s get into the reasoning behind those picks. Remember to also check out our MLB predictions for the whole of Thursday’s slate.
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Boston Red Sox first 5 innings ML over Miami Marlins (-115, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars)
The Boston Red Sox close out their 3-game series with the Miami Marlins at Fenway looking to avoid a sweep. Boston's offense, which has been incredible at home this season, has been stymied in the first two games. Coming into this series, on the season, the Boston offense at home was batting .291, which is the best in baseball. Their OPS is .836, which trails only the Texas Rangers, and their wRC+ is 121, which is 3rd-best in baseball, 21% better than average. They have also scored the 3rd-most runs in baseball at home this season trailing only Texas and Tampa Bay. In the first two games combined, they scored only 3 runs, left 13 men on base and were 2-10 with runners in scoring position. Some positive regression should be coming in the series finale. Finally, the Red Sox start Brayan Bello, who since May 1 has given up more than 2 earned runs just once in 9 starts and failed to get through 5 innings only once.