Mets-Astros prediction: Picks, odds on Wednesday, June 21

The Houston Astros got to Justin Verlander and evened up their three-game set with the New York Mets on Tuesday night, and now both of these teams will be vying for a much-needed series win in the finale on Wednesday afternoon. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. New York will send right Tylor Megill (6-4, 4.83 ERA) to the mound against Houston ace Cristian Javier (7-1, 2.90).

The Astros enter as -155 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets the +135 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.

Mets

Out: RP Edwin Uceta (recovery from left knee surgery), SP Elieser Hernandez (right shoulder strain), SP Jose Quintana (recovery from rib surgery), RP Sam Coonrod (right lat strain)

Astros

Out: SP Jose Urquidy (right shoulder inflammation), OF Michael Brantley (right shoulder surgery), DH Yordan Alvarez (oblique strain)

Tylor Megill vs. Cristian Javier

Injuries thrust Megill into New York's rotation, and things haven't gone particularly well – his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage are among the worst of any starter in baseball, and his K rate has plummeted from 25.5% last year to 17.9% this year. He is coming off one of his best starts of the year, though, striking out seven over six innings of one-run ball in a win over the St. Louis Cardinals last week. Still, Megill's slider hasn't been nearly the weapon it was in 2022, and as long as that's the case, he'll likely struggle to find consistency.

Javier, on the other hand, has been nothing but consistent, allowing one or fewer runs in five of his last six starts. The strikeout numbers aren't nearly what they were during his breakout 2022 campaign, largely because his fastball isn't generating as many swings and misses. It's still generating lots of weak fly balls, though, and his slider remains an absolute monster of a pitch. If the heater stays elevated, he's going to be awfully tough to beat.

The Mets busted out for 11 runs on Monday, but Tuesday's affair saw just six runs total, and I'm banking on that trend continuing on Wednesday afternoon. New York has been a pedestrian offense so far this season, especially against righties, and I don't expect them to be able to do much against Javier. That means it'll be up to Houston to hit this over, and with just 28 runs scored over their nine games, that doesn't seem particularly likely.

Pick: Under 8.5

This is a pretty lopsided pitching matchup, and unless Javier really doesn't have it – or Houston's bullpen implodes – it's hard to pick against the Astros in this spot. Even without Yordan Alvarez, they still have Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, and that should be more than enough against Megill.

Pick: Astros

  
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