It’s August, which means it’s time for football. No, it’s not real football. It’s better than that. It’s preseason football.
If you’re a true degenerate, the preseason is your SZN — because you’re the only person you know sick enough to bet on this.
Not your weird uncle. Not your high school math teacher. Not your next-door neighbor with the unironic moustache. Not even your mailman.
You. Only you.
And me. And my depraved friends in the FREE BettingPros Discord. We’re all over the preseason.
Join us.
Let’s lose some money together.
Because we’re dumb enough to bet on NFL preseason games.
The football gods are good.
Here are 10 guidelines for how I’m betting the 2022 NFL preseason.
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Bet on the Ravens
For HC John Harbaugh, the preseason might as well be the Super Bowl. His teams come to play in the preseason, and they are usually deep, disciplined and aggressive, thus hard to beat. Throughout his tenure, the Ravens are 40-12 on the moneyline (45% ROI, per BetLabs) and 36-15-1 ATS.
I doubt we’ll see them as underdogs at any point this preseason (vs. Titans, at Cardinals, vs. Commanders), but if we do I’ll be sure to make them my mega turbo supersized 100-unit whale play (I’m joking): In the preseason, Harbaugh is 17-5 ATS as a dog.
A couple edges the Ravens have:
- K Justin Tucker is better than whatever training camp kickers a lot of other teams roll out in preseason games.
- QBs Tyler Huntley and Brett Hundley are above-average players for where they are on the depth chart.
Moneyline, spread, whatever. I’m betting on the Ravens. They’re -4.5 home favorites vs. Titans in Week 1 (DraftKings).
Fade the Lions … Maybe … But Definitely Take the Under in Their Games
Last year the Lions were true heroes under HC Dan Campbell, going 11-6 ATS overall and 4-1 ATS vs. teams with winning percentages above .500.
And this year they’re the team I like the most relative to the market in my power ratings.
But I’m not the only person who likes them. They’re one of the most popular teams for sports bettors to back entering the season.
The most popular NFL wager by handle in July at @CaesarsSports has been… Lions OVER 6 wins
Additionally, Dan Campbell has drawn the most money overall to win Coach of the Year and D'Andre Swift has drawn the most money overall to lead the NFL in rushing yards.
— Max Meyer (@TheMaxMeyer) July 20, 2022
And that means they could be overvalued in the preseason, especially since they’ll have extra exposure as the team.
Since the 2007 reboot of Hard Knocks, the featured teams have the following preseason betting records:
– ATS: 21-31
– O/U: 17-34-1Someone had to do the dirty work. I wouldn't call myself a hero.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) August 3, 2022
The Lions have one of the league’s most talentless rosters — backup QBs Tim Boyle (3.4 AY/A for his career) and David Blough (4.3 AY/A) are horrendous — so it’s easy to see how they could fail to cover.
But they do have a try-hard ethos, which could enable them on defense to get stops and drive the game to the under.
Maybe I’ll bet against the Lions this preseason. I will almost certainly bet the under in their games.
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Bet Unders — Especially in Warm Weather
Before 2014, overs and unders were fairly balanced in the preseason, but for the past eight years the under is 245-183-8.
I don’t know what changed in 2014 … but I think it might be global warming.
I’m joking, sort of.
In games with a temperature of at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit, the under is 8-1.
I mention this because I want to show that I can spell “Fahrenheit” on the first try (allegedly), and also it has been a hot summer and we could get some warm games.
For Week 1, these are the contests that might present a weather-informed opportunity for unders.
- Browns at Jaguars: 33.0 (-110,'FanDuel)
- Dolphins at Buccaneers: 33.0 (-110, Caesars)