Today’s MLB Home Run Prop Bets For May 1
WagerTalk content contributor Kyle Kargel provides his daily home run prop picks and predictions for Monday, May 1 with odds provided by FanDuel.
Kyle’s home run prop predictions article comes out every day and is the most widely read home run props page online.'
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Home Run Prop Prediction 1: Rafael Devers (+330)
We've pinpointed a Jose Berrios road start tonight coming at Fenway Park and at this point we're all aware of the road struggles of the Blue Jays pitcher. He's only allowed one home run this season which is great but he does have a 7.56 ERA compared to a 0.75 home ERA this season.
We'll go with Rafael Devers again to hit a home run now tied for 2nd in the MLB with 10 so far. Berrios has yet to play Boston this season but did allow one home run in 12 innings pitched at Fenway Park last season.
He allowed a road home run every 4.1 innings pitched last season so there is always a possibility he can let up a few during any given road start.
Devers has struggled hitting recently lowering his batting average from .286 to .232 over the past two weeks. He did hit a home run a couple games ago hitting .258 at home compared to .196 on the road.
Get Devers to hit a home run tonight at +330 with another valuable Red Sox home run play including Alex Verdugo (+750) who is 6-14 all-time against Berrios with a home run and also hit a home run yesterday.
Home Run Prop Prediction 2: Manny Machado (+370)
It's an understatement to say Reds starting pitcher tonight Luke Weaver has struggled this season. He's allowed five home runs in 11.2 innings and gets the Padres tonight.
Manny Machado is 7-18 all-time against Weaver with two home runs and is heating up this season. He only has four home runs this season but three of those have come over the past three games.
Last year against Cincinnati Machado hit .609 with two home runs! He's been a better hitter at home this season hitting .255 compared to .218 on the road. Last season Machado hit a home run every 18 at-bats and his power got better as the season progressed.
This year he only has one ever 27 at-bats so we should see Machado's power continue for the time-being. Get Machado to hit a home run at +370 tonight with other Padres hitters to consider hitting a home run include Fernando Tatis Jr. (+280) and Juan Soto (+420).