Pavel Kotov vs. Mackenzie Mcdonald Betting Analysis, Wagering Odds, Line Movements, Expert Picks, Advanced Predictions, AI Match Simulation, Best Bets, and Videos (Tuesday, March 18, 2025)

What is Sportsbook Edge?
The Sportsbook Edge is represented as a percentage and that number is the actual edge the sportsbook has over the sports bettor on the moneyline. This edge is how sportsbooks ensure they can turn a profit over the long run even on moneyline bets.

How is Sportsbook Edge calculated?
The Sportsbook Edge is calculated by adding both teams win probability percentages together and subtracting 100 from that total.

Sportsbook Edge Formula:

(Team 1 Win Prob %) +
(Team 2 Win Prob %) - 100
= Sportsbook Edge Percentage %

What's considered a good Sportsbook Edge percentage?
Well generally, the lower the number the better it is for the sports bettor. Usually the Sportsbook Edge percentage does not go lower than 2%. Generally speaking anything from 2% to 3.5% is considered a very good Sportsbook Edge for the sports bettor, 3.6% to 5% is considered average and is usually what is available. Anything over 5% is considered high and is very hard for the sports bettor to turn a profit over time.

Sportsbook Edge Ratings:

BETWEEN 2% AND 3.5% = GOOD

BETWEEN 3.6% AND 5% = AVERAGE

OVER 5% = BAD

What else should I know about Sportsbook Edge?
The Sportsbook Edge gets lower as it gets closer to the start of an event. So for example, the Sportsbook Edge for an NFL game is higher earlier in the week when the odds are first set and gets lower and lower as the week goes on, and it will be at its lowest right before kick-off.

Lower ranked sports leagues, prop bets, and all live betting in general have very high Sportsbook Edge percentages. Usually well over 5% at all times, this is why sportsbooks offer these types of bets to the public. It's very hard for sports bettors to turn a profit over time betting only on lower ranked sports leagues, props bets, or live betting because of this very high Sportsbook Edge percentage.

How does the AI Simulator work?
The AI Simulator uses large data models and machine learning artificial intelligence to determine a winner and final result for a specific match.

Sportsbooks and oddsmakers use many factors to create the betting lines and odds for every match for the public to wager on, the AI Simulator reverse engineers those same betting lines and odds as well as incorporates other statistical and historical match, sport, and public handicapper consensus data to simulate final match results.

Key AI Simulator Model Data:

• Live Lines and Betting Odds
• Historical Lines and Betting Odds
• Streaks and Betting Trends
• Historical Data and Stats
• Previous Match Matchups
• Public Handicapper Consensus
• Rivalries and Revenge Factor
• Travel and Rest Factors
• Key Injuries or Suspensions
• Weather Factor (if applicable)
• And More Advanced Data!

The AI Simulator also utilizes machine learning artificial intelligence to become more accurate over time. For example with the start of every new season, the AI Simulator establishes a performance baseline and only becomes stronger and more accurate as the season unfolds and more data becomes available. Also keep in mind that simulation results can change each time you run a simulation because of real-time changes in the AI data models or changes of the current available betting lines or odds.

Please keep in mind that the slightest movement in the betting odds, lines, or even a change to the event itself (injury, trade, suspension, location, weather, etc.) can cause the AI Simulation and Best Bets to change completely. Each time you run a simulation, the AI data models use the latest information available at that exact moment in time to generate the final simulation results. For the most accurate and consistent results, run the AI Simulation just before the start of the event.

The AI Simulator will also generate best bets based on the final simulation results. If there is good value or an oddity in the betting lines or odds, the AI Simulator will expose it without any bias or human element, based strictly our constantly updating AI data models.

The confidence percentage included with each simulation is a market-stability score, not a claim of simulation prediction accuracy. It starts at a baseline of 100% and is then systematically reduced or adjusted based on how much uncertainty the betting market is signaling between the opening lines and the current lines. First, the model penalizes large total movement (opening total vs current total), because significant changes in the total indicate disagreement or new information about expected scoring; the larger that move, the more confidence is reduced. Next, it penalizes spread movement, since big changes in the spread imply volatility in the expected margin of victory. The model then applies a further adjustment based on sharp bias magnitude-strong moneyline or spread pressure toward one side reduces confidence because the market is actively correcting itself rather than being settled.

Learn More About Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence and Sports Betting Predictions

What is Numerology?
Numerology is the study of numbers and their supposed mystical or divine connection to events in life. It's based on the idea that numbers have a deeper meaning than their numerical value.

How Numerology Works?

• Numerologists believe that numbers have a unique vibration that can influence people's lives.
• They use an alphanumeric system to calculate a person's Life Path Number from their date of birth.
• This value is said to reveal a person's unique characteristics, life purpose, and predicted future events.

How is Your Numerology Life Path Number Calculated?
To calculate your life path number in numerology, you can add the digits of your date of birth together until you reach a single digit.

Calculation Formula:

1. Add the day and month of your date of birth together.
2. Add the digits of your date of birth year together.
3. Add the results from steps 1 and 2 together.
4. If the result is a double digit, add the digits together until you get a single digit.
5. If the result is 11 or 22, you don't reduce it to a single digit. These are called Master Numbers and represent a greater potential for success.

How are Numerology Picks Generated?
We use the laws of Numerology mixed with a bit of our own little magic to generate sports betting picks for you based on your Numerology Life Path Number. Keep in mind, unlike our AI Simulator, Numerology Picks DO NOT use any sort of analytical, statistical, or betting data at all, the picks are purely generated using Numerology.

Go to your account settings to make sure your date of birth is up-to-date and accurate so we can calculate your Numerology Life Path Number correctly.

Learn More About Numerology Life Path Numbers and Sports Betting Predictions

What are AI Expert Picks?
AI Expert Picks leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to discover, identify, analyze, and generate betting picks from the most successful sports betting experts in the industry. By aggregating historical data, real-time expert predictions, past betting patterns, and AI-driven insights, AI Expert Picks provides users with high-confidence AI generated betting recommendations from the industries top betting experts.

Expert Identification & Data Aggregation

• The AI system continuously scans thousands of sports analysts, tipsters, and betting experts across social media, betting forums, sportsbooks, and professional prediction platforms daily.
• It ranks experts based on key performance metrics, including win percentage, return on investment (ROI), unit consistency, and accuracy over time and generates AI sports betting picks to match the experts past betting patterns.
• It collects expert picks from multiple sources and compares them against historical performance to determine credibility.

Machine Learning Model Training

• The AI model is trained on years of betting data, including odds movement, game statistics, betting line shifts, past betting patterns, and historical betting performance.
• It identifies betting patterns amongst top sports betting experts, risk factors, and strategies that consistently yield profitable results.
• The model continuously improves as it ingests more data, refining its ability to predict expert success rates and pick quality.
• The AI model also assigns a confidence level for all AI Expert Picks. This represents the confidence level percentage in which the AI model believes the generated pick will be successful. Only picks with a confidence level of 60% or more make the cut and are shown on the platform.

Learn More About AI Expert Picks

What is Streak4Cash?

Streak4Cash is the ultimate test of your sports prediction skills - and it could win you real cash prizes. The challenge? Put together a 13-pick or 21-pick winning streak by making correct picks on real sports matchups across the variety of leagues, events, or props we offer on our platform.

It's pretty simple: make a pick, win, and keep your streak alive. The longer your streak, the closer you get to cashing in. Whether you're a seasoned sports bettor or just have a knack for picking winners, Streak4Cash rewards your accuracy with real money.

Streak4Cash Prizes and Rules

• 13-Pick Winning Streak: Your choice of either a $1,000 (USD) American Express Gift Card or $1,000 (USD) in Bitcoin.
• 21-Pick Winning Streak: Your choice of either a $2,500 (USD) American Express Gift Card or $2,500 (USD) in Bitcoin.
• You can only make one pick at a time and must wait for your previous pick to be graded before you can make your next pick.
• You can only make picks of odds -130 or higher.

No purchase necessary. No entry fees. No complicated rules. Just pick, win, and build your streak. Every user is allowed at least one Streak4Cash entry without having to upgrade to a Pro account for unlimited entries.

Are you ready to chase the streak? Make your first pick today!