The Dominican Republic sends reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara to the hill against the Venezuelans on Saturday, as the two clubs battle in the Pool D bout to open their World Baseball Classic play. Read on for our top Dominican Republic-Venezuela pick based on the best odds from our best sportsbooks.
Venezuela will counter with veteran lefty Martin Perez. He's coming off a career-best MLB campaign in 2022, but this still projects as a daunting matchup against a loaded Dominican Republic lineup with hitters capable of teeing off on southpaws.
Juan Soto, Rafel Devers, Julio Rodriguez, and Jeremy Pena headline the Dominican youth movement, and veterans Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz, and Robinson Cano check out as fitting veteran complements. This bullpen is also sneaky deep with proven, high-leverage arms.
Make no mistake, the Venezuela r oster is chock full of talent, too. Ronald Acuna Jr. alone is a human-highlight reel and Jose Altuve, Eugenio Suarez, and Salvador Perez add ample experience alongside youngsters Andres Gimenez and Luis Arraez.
Here is our best Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela WBC pick (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela pick: WBC 2023
The sportsbooks have been slow to post World Baseball Classic betting lines, and I believe they're unsure how to handicap these games, since there are numerous unknowns.
Perfect!
It means we can catch some sportsbooks with an incorrect price or line, and that's exactly what I'm doing here. Saturday's victim is DraftKings, who has by far and away the best price on the Dominican Republic to win by more than 2.5 runs at +105 .
At bet365, the Dominican Republic is trading at -135 to win by 2.5 runs over Venezuela, whereas at Pinnacle it's trading at -108. Neither of these sportsbooks, which I trust more than DraftKings in their handicapping, have the Dominican Republic trading at a plus price.
For a no-sweat bankroll builder, you can technically bet the Dominican Republic at +105 at DraftKings and Venezuela at +105 at bet365 and walk away with a profit. It's one of the many benefits of using multiple sportsbooks.
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Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela best odds
| DraftKings | Caesars | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|
| Dominican Republic -2.5 | Dominican Republic -2.5 | Dominican Republic -2.5 |
| +105 | +100 | -110 |
With a price of +105, DraftKings offers the best odds for the Dominican Republic to defeat Venezuela by more than 2.5 runs. Although the difference between BetMGM at -110 and DraftKings at +105 may appear insignificant, it represents a difference of 3.6% in implied probability.
If BetMGM's pricing at -110 is accurate, which I think it is, grabbing DraftKings' rogue price of +105 would result in a positive expected value of 7%.
Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela odds analysis
On the money line, the Dominican Republic opened as a -275 favorite at BetMGM, and there's no consensus price, as the odds were just posted and are in their early stages.
As with the money line and run line, the total is experiencing a similar trend. We're seeing a variety of juice and different lines, with Caesars trading the total at 8.5, while BetMGM and DraftKings are trading the total at 9.
As the odds spend more time on the market, we should see all the sportsbooks reach a consensus on the odds. The sportsbooks are currently in a price discovery mode, so we plan to take advantage of that at DraftKings.
Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela game info
- Date: Saturday, March 11, 7 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
- Location: loanDepot park, Miami
- Weather: Indoors
Dominican Republic-Venezuela pick made 03/11/2023 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
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