The final game of the NBA's Christmas slate this year takes place in the desert, as the .500 Phoenix Suns (14-14 SU; 10-17-1 ATS) host a Dallas Mavericks (17-12 SU; 15-14 ATS) team that would say they should probably have a few more wins as well.
Dallas was able to end a three-game slide with a dominant 144-119 win over San Antonio on Saturday night, as a tough part of the schedule (vs Timberwolves, at Blazers, at Mavericks, vs Clippers, at Houston) was really getting the better of the Mavs. Now, PG Kyrie Irving missed all those games as he's been on the sidelines since early December, and that definitely plays a part, but things don't get any easier for Dallas the rest of the way.
Phoenix has been hurt my injuries all year long, but a 3-7 SU (1-9 ATS) run coming into the holiday break is just awful, as four of those seven outright losses have come as favorites. Only the Pistons (10- 19 ATS) and Hawks (7-22 ATS) are worse against the number this year, and with a 2-8 ATS mark in their last 10 as a favorite of six or less, Suns backers are hoping they won't need a Christmas miracle to cash a ticket.
PG Luka Doncic is still Mr. Everything for this team, as he's priced as the third favorite (+600) in the MVP race right now, and the triple-double (39-12-10) he had on Saturday was a strong way to bounce back from a 9-for-25 shooting night in a loss to the Clippers earlier in the week. His 32.9 Points/Game are the second-best in the NBA, and had Doncic got one more rebound against the Clippers and two more assists against Denver, we'd be talking about him having posted four consecutive triple-doubles; three of which had 38+ points. Doncic is at the top of his game right now, and catching points with him is always going to be attractive.
However, the Mavericks are just 2-8 ATS this year as an underdog, the second-worst record as an underdog in the league (LA Clippers are 1-6 ATS). This is a team that still has an issue beating the better teams in this league, and that issue was a big part of why they went out and got Irving last season. Their last four games as an underdog have all been losses by at least nine points, as just having that second option out there in Irving could change a lot for Dallas right now.
Even still, the Mavs sit 8th in the league in Offensive Efficiency as they've surrounded Doncic with a bunch of shooters, jacking up threes at the second-highest rate in the NBA (42.5). All those threes attempted leads to 15.2 makes per game for Dallas from beyond the arc, and that style can shoot the Mavericks in and out of games. The better teams are able to take those open looks away which is why the Mavericks record as an underdog is what it is, and the Suns do emphasize taking the three-ball away (9th in Opponent Threes Attempted/Game at 33.7).
For Dallas to cover this number, they'll need to finish with the upper hand in that three-ball battle, but after shooting 51% from distance (23-for-45) in the Spur s win, that fear of regression is still lurking around here.