Friday’s are always great, but especially when the MLB slate is loaded with 15 games to choose from including 2 daytime games. The betting market is all over the place this morning with several angles to attack, but I was able to find value in each of the early games. Let’s dive in!
Justin Steele (CHC) over 17.5 outs recorded (-121) (to win 1U)
While Marcus Stroman has certainly had an excellent season for the Chicago Cubs, Justin Steele is the ace of this pitching staff. The 27-year-old left-hander is in his 2nd season as a full-time starter and has performed at an all-star level. Steele has a 2.62 ERA with a 2.83 FIP to back it up, and his efficiency stands out. With a 63.6% first pitch strike rate he is able to get ahead in counts early with regularity. Steele is able to draw batters out of the zone with chases 31.8% of the time which ranks 79th percentile. His chase contact rate allowed is 3.9% lower than league average and helps him get ahead 0-2 on batters 32.5% of the time, the 10th highest mark among qualified arms. He also draws a ton of weak contact from those chases, with his weak contact rate sitting at 8%, over double the league average mark of 3.9%.
Among those previously mentioned qualified pitchers, Steele ranks 8th lowest with only 3.68 pitches per plate appearance this season. The southpaw is able to win while not generating high strikeout totals, sacrificing swing-and-miss for weak contact. Steele generates a 50% ground ball rate, his 3rd straight season with a mark at least that high. This allows him to generate easy outs and potential double plays, especially with the defensive infield he has behind him. His career-best 5.7% BB% has helped his efficiency and in his last start he saw his workload back up to 89 pitches across 6 1-run innings vs the Cardinals in London. His previous start went well also with 5 innings of 2-run ball against the Orioles before being pulled at 74 pitches in his first start back from the IL. With a normal pitch count he easily covers this line in that outing.