Yesterday’s article resulted in a 1-1 day but left us without an apex with both pitchers falling way short of their strikeout props. For Shane Bieber’s under, that was good. For Mitch Keller’s over that wasn’t so good. Luckily for today’s article I found a bet that should provide a little more entertainment value. Let’s dive in!
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) to record a stolen base (+285) (0.25U)
Betting on someone to record a stolen base takes into account a number of factors and is a prop market with a ton of variance. This is why I have typically stayed clear of this type of bet. In this case, however, I am finding value. Cincinnati Reds rookie infielder Elly De La Cruz made his MLB debut yesterday. The 6’5″ 21-year-old switch-hitting speedster is the 4th ranked prospect in all of Major League Baseball and didn’t disappoint in his debut. De La Cruz walked twice, roped a 112.8 MPH double on an 0-2 count, and scored 2 of the Reds 9 runs during a 9-8 walk-off win for Cincinnati. Only 7 of the 23 pitches that he saw were located inside the strike zone, showing a hesitancy to leave the ball over the plate against him. He should get solid chances to put the ball in play against Noah Syndergaard and his 6th percentile xBA, but if Thor is nibbling as well, we will take the free pass.
Syndergaard not only let’s batters reach base often, but he is the league’s worst pitcher at holding runners. The veteran right-hander has allowed a league high 16 steals while only successfully stopping an attempt 1 time. Last season he allowed a league high 30 steals while catching only 3 runners. For his career he has allowed 185 steals on 207 attempts. Cincinnati has the 3rd most stolen bases of any team in baseball this year, and now have a new weapon. De La Cruz stole 47 bags in AA last season while getting caught just 6 times. He was caught 6 times already in AAA through 17 attempts this season, but 17 attempts in 38 games is certainly noteworthy. His speed is off the charts, and he reached 30.4 ft/sec on his double in yesterday’s game. If the ball wasn’t hit so hard it would have been a triple.