Weekend baseball is here, and MLB fans will have endless entertainment on today’s slate. With the Cardinals and Cubs facing off in London, stateside fans will get early afternoon action with games following throughout the day. While that matchup is certainly the marquee game of the day, I believe I have found value elsewhere on today’s card. Let’s dive in!
Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+100)
This is a play we have attacked numerous times this season, and while most of those occurrences have been against southpaw pitching, this time we are attacking a right-hander. Luis Severino has struggled mightily this season. After only 75 pitches across 18 batters faced in his season debut, Luis has seen his training wheels come off with 25 or more TBF in 4 of his last 5 starts. He hasn’t been effective on the mound, however, posting a 9.16 ERA across 4 starts this month. None of the 4 outings have exceeded 5 innings of work while the Yankees have allowed 7, 4, 6, and 4 runs in the first 5 innings of those respective games. In only 30 innings of work Severino has allowed 12 barrels and 8 home runs. His 12.5%-barrel rate ranks 8th percentile while his xBA and xSLG are also 10th percentile or worse. A career-worst 44.8% hard-hit rate can be partly attributed to his atrocious 4-seam fastball. Severino is throwing that pitch 53% of the time this season while opponents are hitti ng .328 with a .625 SLG and .436 wOBA against it.
Not only is Severino allowing a high rate of hard-contact, and a high rate of contact overall, but his command is also below average. The right-hander has a 29th percentile chase rate and 9.3% BB%. His career-low 20.0% K% is partly due to less movement both horizontally and vertically on his slider this season. That pitch is generating a 14.8% put away rate which is nearly half the rate from just last season. His hard-hit rate is worrisome in any matchup, but especially against a Rangers offense ranking 1st in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. During that span they also rank 4th in both wOBA and ISO while posting a wRC+ of 123. Texas has a well-rounded lineup with their bottom of the order being talented enough to be the top of the order in other lineups. They also mix right and left-handed batters well, both of which have had success against Severino this season. A career-low ground ball rate and career worst FIP are not encouraging signs for the Ya nkees pitcher. Ballpark Pal projects Yankees Stadium for a 24% boost in home run chances today. I am fine with the Rangers full game team total but prefer isolating Severino in the first 5 innings.