Today’s slate is absolutely filled with games worth watching and betting on. The Cubs and Cardinals have returned from London to begin new series against the Phillies and Astros respectively. Aces such as Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman, Framber Valdez, and Joe Ryan are all taking the mound for their ball clubs. My attention is focused on the game in Pittsburgh, however. Let’s dive in!
San Diego Padres team total over 3.5 / Yu Darvish 5+ strikeouts (-120)
There are many ways to attack the Pittsburgh Pirates currently, and today this is my favorite way. Rich Hill is 43-years of age and has the slowest average 4-seam velocity in all of MLB. The southpaw still throws that pitch 33.9% of the time, 6% less than his arsenal-leading 39.9% curveball usage. His cutter essentially rounds out his portfolio with a sweeper and sinker each seeing only single-digit usage. While San Diego’s season long numbers against left-handed fastballs are not great, in June those numbers have improved with a healthy Manny Machado and the addition of Gary Sanchez. Against left-handed curveballs, San Diego has dominated all season with the 3rd highest wOBA and 4th highest ISO. They sit 9th in wOBA and 10th in ISO against left-handed cutters. Despite facing 5 innings of MacKenzie Gore’s best possible baseball in their last chance, against southpaw pitching in the last 30 days San Diego ranks 3rd in wOBA, 2nd in ISO, and have a wRC+ of 128.
The Padres lineup is patient, averaging the 3rd most pitches per plate appearance of any team in baseball while drawing the 5th highest BB% against southpaws. Hill has been able to remain in the league due to his plus command, but this season that control has faltered with a 56.9% first pitch strike rate and 44th percentile BB%. He has walked 2 or more batters in 8 of his last 9 outings including 6 walks against Milwaukee 2 starts ago. The Brewers are 2nd in pitches per plate appearance, for reference. Not only is Hill issuing a higher rate of free passes but being behind in counts with an inability to throw 90 MPH is not where you want to be. Hill ranks 16th percentile or worse in barrel rate, xBA, xSLG, whiff rate, and chase rate. Batters are laying off on the pitches outside the zone and destroying those left over the plate. Behind Hill is a Pirates bullpen that has fallen apart in the last 30 days. During that span they rank dead last in ERA (6.57), WHIP (1.80), K-BB% (6.3%), and FIP (5.57.) They have faced the 8th most batters during that span as well. Ballpark Pal is projecting an 8% boost in overall runs scored with a 20% boost to doubles and triples at PNC Park tonight. With 11 MPH wind blowing out and temperatures in the 70’s the run scoring environment is better than a normal night in Pittsburgh.