Weekend baseball is here and today’s MLB slate is stocked full with 15 games to choose from. The Braves and Rays will face off again and grab many of the headlines, but I am finding value in the betting markets elsewhere today. Let’s dive in!
Braxton Garrett (MIA) over 5.5 strikeouts (-118)
Braxton Garrett has been terrific this season for the Miami Marlins. The former 7th overall pick from the 2016 draft has been brought along slowly, but is showing flashes of dominance this season, especially in the strikeout department. The left-hander ranks 76th percentile in K% this season but has really taken off since his 2nd start against the Braves. Garrett appeared to be tipping pitches in that May 8 start against Atlanta but has since emerged as an elite weapon for the Marlins staff. In his last 11 starts Garrett has recorded 6 or more strikeouts 9 times, with one of the misses shortened due to a rain delay. During that span his 28.1% K-BB% ranks 2nd behind only Spencer Strider. The addition of a cutter to his arsenal has been massive for his sequencing and overall portfolio as a pitcher. He has used that offering 25.1% and 25.2% of the time during May and June respectively and had 27.8% usage with that pitch in his only July start so far. While he will mix in a cutter aga inst lefties, this pitch is mainly a weapon against right-handed batters. He has generated a 27% whiff rate and 20% put away rate against those right-handed batters with his cutter. The Phillies have the league’s 8th highest K% against left-handed cutters this season.
Garrett is able to generate swinging strikes with his 12.8% mark ranking 74th percentile, but his high called strike rate leads to a 32.3% CSW%, a mark ranking 92nd percentile. A ton of his looking strikes come on his sinker, a pitch he has a 29.0% put away rate with despite just a 9.9% whiff rate. His movement on that offering is exceptional, generating above average movement both horizontally and vertically. Braxton also draws batters out of the zone often, ranking 91st percentile with his 33.7% chase rate. Opponents are connecting on those chases just 46.4% of the time, 11.7% less than league average. The Phillies, today’s opponent, have chased at the league’s 4th highest rate in the last 30 days. They also rank 17th in zone contact rate and have the 9th highest swinging strike rate during that span. Garrett’s main chase pitch, and main strikeout pitch overall is his slider. That pitch has held opponents to a .191 AVG and .262 wOBA while generating a 44.2% whi ff rate and 26.6% put away rate. The Phillies have struck out against left-handed sliders at the 5th highest rate.