Welcome to Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 39.5) in London
Wes Reynolds: Russell Wilson has looked cooked this season, but he’s still an upgrade over what we saw from Brett Rypien last week in a 16-9 loss to the Jets. The Broncos won the yardage battle (324-260) but only averaged 4.3 yards per play, with Rypien at 4.7 yards per pass attempt.
The Broncos rank last in points per game at 14.3, but there is value playing them in a teaser in a game with the lowest total on the board.
Wilson appears ready to go after doing the high knees in the aisle on the flight to London (yeah, he’s a little strange), so “Let’s Ride” with the Broncos and pair them in a teaser with the Texans (versus the Titans).
Pick: Broncos + 8.5/Texans + 8.5 Teaser
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 42.2)
Femi Abebefe: A lot of old-school sharp handicappers like to fade teams coming off strong performances in prime time. I don’t think many people expected the 2022 Bears to end up in that type of spot, but after their demolition of the Patriots, I’ll be looking to short them.
From a numerical standpoint, let’s remember the Bears closed as 8.5-point underdogs against New England after having extra rest and preparation time. Now they’re at a rest disadvantage and heading to Dallas to face the Cowboys.
Whatever you think about the Cowboys, I think most people would say Dallas is probably three points better than New England on a neutral field. If that’s the case, this number shouldn’t be lower than the lookahead line of 10.
Couple that with the fact that the Bears offensive line is shaky at best and is now going up against one of the most lethal pass rushes in the NFL. Never in a million years would I bet Chicago in this spot after last week’s performance. Give me “America’s Team” to win by double digits.
Pick: Cowboys -9.5
Las Vegas Raiders (-1, 49.5) at New Orleans Saints
Adam Burke: The Raiders had a really slow start last week against the Texans but ultimately hung 38 points and got Davante Adams more involved than he has been in any game this season. They also ran the ball effectively with Josh Jacobs. It makes sense that an offensive mind like Josh McDaniels would fix some things during the bye.
This week, the Raiders have a great chance to continue that momentum. It’s an early game with a long trip to New Orleans, but the Saints are missing Bradley Roby, and Marshon Lattimore still isn’t healthy and could miss another game. That should set up well for Adams and Mack Hollins to be key cogs in a Raiders offense that has racked up six yards per play.
I wrote about it last week when I took the Raiders laying a touchdown against the Texans: This team should be a lot better. They’ve moved the ball and rank second in points per drive, despite having a bunch of red-zone issues. They’ve scored on over 54% of their possessions. They have achieved some really great rushing numbers and the passing game should be coming around.
Defensively, the Raiders are a bit limited and haven’t gotten the pressure they would like, but Andy Dalton doesn’t move well and can be pressured into mistakes when the pocket starts to collapse. The Saints are severely banged-up again this week against a fresher Raiders team off of a recent bye.
Pick: Raiders -1
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 41)
Adam Burke: Sometimes inexplicable things happen in sports. The Panthers scored more than16 points for the first time in four games and beat the Buccaneers last week. They rushed for a season-high 173 yards without Christian McCaffrey, who was traded to the 49ers three days earlier. Prior to the 21-3 win over Tampa Bay, the Panthers had lost three straight games by double digits.
They take on a lesser foe in the Falcons this week, but one that has been low-key humming on offense. By DVOA, Atlanta is ninth in Total Offense, 15th in Pass Offense and fourth in Rushing Offense. The Panthers, meanwhile, are 30th, 32nd and 15th in those categories. With the worst offense in the NFL on third down, Carolina’s lack of efficiency has been a major issue and will continue to be.
By DVOA, the Falcons have the worst defense in the NFL, but the Panthers are a big step down from most of the opponents they have faced. After committing eight turnovers in the first four games, the Falcons haven’t turned the ball over in any of the last three. Arthur Smith’s offense is really taking hold and the team has shown clear improvement throughout the season.
The Panthers had their big bump after the McCaffrey trade, but it should be back to reality this week.
Pick: Falcons -4
Dave Tuley: Believe it or not, this game has NFC South implications with all four teams under .500 entering Week 8. The Falcons (3-4) were tied with Tampa Bay at the top of the division entering the Bucs’ Thursday night game, while the Panthers (2-5) were just one game back after upsetting the Bucs as 13-point home underdogs in Week 7 (despite trading star RB Christian McCaffrey and everyone believing they had given up on the season).
The Falcons have been overachieving all season. Their 35-17 loss to the Bengals was the first game they didn’t cover against the spread, with three upsets and three covers in straight-up losses.
The Falcons opened as 6.5-point home favorites, which is usually not a good spot for teams that are used to being dogs (see recent examples of Lions and Jaguars), and early action has come in on the Panthers. RBs D’Onta Foreman (116 rushing yards, two receptions) and Chubba Hubbard (63 rushing yards, one TD, two receptions) more than made up for the loss of McCaffrey, while QB P.J. Walker (16-for-22, 177 passing yards, two TDs) hit enough key throws to upset the Bucs, though the Panthers are still last in the NFL at 271.9 yards per game.
The Falcons, for all their relative success, are No. 30 in total defense, so we feel this line is a little inflated (the advance line from the summer was around pick’em or Falcons -1). We expect the Panthers to be in this the whole way and we don’t think anyone will be shocked if they pull another upset.
Pick: Panthers + 4Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5, 43)
Dave Tuley: These aren’t Andy Reid’s Eagles, who used to be gold coming out of a bye; in fact, they’re 6-6 SU and 3-8-1 ATS in post-bye week games the past dozen years, including 2-3 SU and a 0-4-1 ATS in home games.
Philadelphia apologists will say this undefeated team is better than most of those squads, but we still don’t think the Eagles should be favored by this many points. I mean, as awesome as the Eagles have been this season, they’ve only won two games (Vikings and Commanders) by more than this spread and have failed to cover smaller spreads against the Lions and Cardinals.
Besides, the Steelers, as inconsistent as they’ve been, are coming off a 20-18 upset of the Buccaneers as 9.5-point home underdogs and a spread-covering 16-10 loss as 7-point road dogs at the Dolphins.
Pick: Steelers + 10.5
Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 51.5) at Detroit Lions
Wes Reynolds: The Lions were a team that the metrics and math guys liked to start the season, but now they’re 1-5 and at the bottom of the NFC North (1.5 games behind the Packers and Bears). The market may have been too high on this team to begin with, but the Lions may be a bit oversold at this point.
Detroit is back at home and indoors at Ford Field, where they have scored 35 (Week 1 vs. Philadelphia), 36 (Week 2 vs. Washington) and 45 (Week 4 vs. Seattle) for an average of 38.7 points at home.
The shutout loss at New England in Week 5 was a bad spot for them, though still hard to excuse. However, they had a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter at Minnesota and outgained the Vikings. Last week was a highly misleading final score at Dallas. The market came in on Detroit at + 7/+ 7.5 and the number actually closed + 6.5. Detroit was only down 10-6 in the fourth quarter at “Jerry World” and had a first-and-goal at the 1 with 12 minutes left. Jamaal Williams fumbled at the goal line, ending a 12-play, 79-yard, seven-minute drive with no points. Then, Detroit forced a three-and-out only to turn it over again, giving Dallas a short field and a touchdown that put the game out of reach. The yardage between the two teams (Dallas 330-312 edge; 5.6 YPP for each) was essentially even, but the Lions had five turnovers (-4 margin) and that was the ballgame.
Meanwhile, Miami’s secondary is really banged up with corners Byron Jones and Nick Needham along with safety Brandon Jones out for the season. Corner Xavien Howard has been battling a groin injury since Week 4 and is playing at way less than 100%, while fellow corner Kader Kohou has been limited in practice with an oblique injury. Safety Jevon Holland ranks seventh out of 87 safeties per PFF, but he can only do so much. In addition, the Lions likely get RB D’Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown back this week.
This looks like a buy-low spot on the Lions.
Pick: Lions + 3.5
Adam Burke: Sometimes you stumble upon a really good handicap that you didn’t even think about. I have our own Matt Brown to thank for this one. While waiting to hop on the desk for “VSiN Final Countdown,” I got to overhear Matt talking about his thoughts on Dolphins-Lions and why he liked Miami. I’ll present his case to you, along with some additional points.
As we all know, Tua Tagovailoa came back from concussion protocol last week and wasn’t terribly sharp against the Steelers, but he was being treated with kid gloves and maybe a little gun-shy in his own right. This week, he should be able to unleash Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill against a bad Lions defense. As Matt pointed out, Hill leads the NFL in catches of 10+ and 20+ yards. Meanwhile, Waddle leads the league in catches of 30+ and 40+ yards.
The Lions are the worst defense in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt and adjusted net yards per pass attempt. They’re also 27th in yards per catch and tied with the Raiders for fewest sacks this season. Tua should eat and his receivers should feast in this game. Add in the fast track at Ford Field and you’ve got a recipe for success.
Detroit is 32nd in points per drive allowed and 31st in percentage of opponents’ possessions ending in a score. How the Lions keep up here is a mystery. Lay it and play it with the road Dolphins.
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 49)
Adam Burke: There seems to be a lot of love in the betting markets for Arizona this week and I don’t get it. The Cardinals gave up nearly 500 yards to the Saints last week and greatly benefited from two pick-sixes in the span of 1:04 to end the first half. Arizona’s defense, specifically the secondary, remains a huge problem for this team.
The Vikings are being bet against because they are -0.6 in yards per play differential and have greatly overachieved as a 5-1 team, but a brilliant mind like Kevin O’Connell is coming off the bye and facing a Cardinals team that he saw five times as the offensive coordinator of the Rams from 2020-21. The Cardinals have the highest percentage of possessions ending in points for the opposition at 45.8%. The Vikings take good care of the ball and have plenty of weapons for Kirk Cousins.
Here’s another thing: Arizona is -0.9 in yards per play. The Cardinals have only mustered 4.9 yards per play. The return of DeAndre Hopkins was big, but the Saints were also missing Marshon Lattimore to start the game and lost Bradley Roby during the game, so they were basically running out practice-squad dudes. Minnesota’s YPP differential is due in large part to games against the Eagles and Dolphins, two offenses with a ton of skill-position talent. The Cardinals don’t have that to the same degree.
Situationally, the game also lends itself well to Minnesota with the Vikings coming off the bye and Arizona having a long trip and an early kickoff.
Pick: Vikings -3.5
Wes Reynolds: Minnesota comes into Week 8 with a 5-1 record and off a bye. Perhaps the bye week came at the worst time with the Vikings on a four-game winning streak and running relatively lucky of late.
I bet the Vikings Over on their season wins total, to win the NFC North and as a 40-1 darkhorse to win the Super Bowl. Needless to say, I was high on this team over the summer and I do not dislike them, but if you look at recent form, the Vikings haven’t really proven anything. They beat a Lions team that has won one game and were outgained 416-373 (while having to come back from down 10 in the fourth quarter). Next, they beat the Saints and Andy Dalton in London while getting outgained in yards per play (5.9 to 5.1). Then, they beat the Bears after blowing a double-digit lead at home and having to score with 2:26 left to come back and win. Finally, they won in Miami against a combination of Teddy Bridgewater and third-string rookie Skylar Thompson (and were outgained 458-234).
Meanwhile, Arizona might be a bit revitalized with the return of DeAndre Hopkins after his six-game suspension. Hopkins showed no rust last Thursday night, catching 10 balls for 103 yards on 14 targets. Kyler Murray also posted his first game of the season with a passer rating of over 100. Ordinarily one player’s return does not make much of a difference, but Hopkins’ certainly does.
— Murray with Hopkins: 9-2 record, 71% completions, 20-9 TD-INT, 271 yards/game
— Murray without Hopkins: 3-7 record, 64% completions, 11-6 TD-INT, 238 yards/game
Arizona’s scoring differential is + 6.0 points per game with Hopkins and -4.4 without him. The Vikings rank 31st in DVOA versus opposing No. 1 receivers, so Hopkins could have a monster day. Minnesota also ranks 32nd against tight ends, so ditto for Zach Ertz.
The Cardinals defense has also been trending upward since being crushed 44-21 in Week 1 versus Kansas City. Arizona is 8th in Defensive EPA since Week 1.
Finally, I have been critical of Kliff Kingsbury and he often seems in over his head. However, he’s 15-3-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Pick: Cardinals + 3.5