UFC 280, one of the most competitively matched fight cards of the year, is upon us. The Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, with the larger 30-foot Octagon, will host the event. Fights kick off in prime time Saturday in Abu Dhabi (9 a.m. ET/6 a.m. PT), which is more proof of the global growth of the UFC. Lightweight and bantamweight titles will be up for grabs to go along with 11 other fights.
Fighters will be competing in front of a voracious pro-Russian and Muslim crowd, which could affect judging if there are any close decisions.
Last week, Jacob Malkoun (+ 120) displayed his mettle by defeating Nick Maximov in decisive fashion. Lou Finocchiario’s totals in 2022: 24-13 (+ 12.64 units with an average price of + 107).
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Wednesday night.
Islam Makhachev (-190) vs. Charles Oliveira (+ 160)
Lightweight title fight (155 pounds) | Main event
Total in this fight: 2.5 rounds (Under -170)
Lou Finocchiaro: Russian vice grip Islam Makhachev comes from the Khabib Nurmagomedov camp. His wrestling/sambo grappling is on a world-class level, to say the least. His striking, though effective, is still developing along with perhaps the biggest area of needed improvement for the forward pressing Russian: his footwork and fluidity of movement.
Statistically, he sports dynamic strike defense, though I believe it’s his unwillingness to engage and his memory that drive that stat. Makhachev wrestles; he doesn’t fight. Remember, he was KO’d in his debut years ago and that drives him to stay the course, which is strictly wrestling- and sambo-rooted.
Champion Charles Oliveira will have a vast advantage in experience as well as level of competition faced. Oliveira will have a 4-inch reach advantage which, coupled with his athleticism and striking abilities, will provide him a substantial edge while this fight remains on the feet.
A third-degree black belt in BJJ, Oliveira will pose certain challenges that will force Makhachev to be somewhat measured in his approach. Any minimal error from an incoming Makhachev could easily result in an unwanted nap via submission, so Makhachev must remain cautious when he attempts to gain the inside because Oliveira is a master.
Oliveira will carve up Makhachev on the feet — both men know this — so how Oliveira handles the forward pressure Makhachev exerts is key. Makhachev’s singular point of focus here is to clasp onto the champ, force him to the fence and then the floor.
Oliveira is deadly from the mat but must avoid bottom position as Makhachev’s dominance comes from top position, so the game on the canvas should be fascinating as well as telling.
Oliveira’s advantage comes from the fact that he is a complete, well-rounded offensive fighter. His keen balance of striking, grappling, footwork and cardio provide him tremendous momentum after going through such high-caliber title defenses already. Throw in the ruse that was his weight miss in his last fight against Justin Gaethje and I can guarantee we’ll see the absolute best Oliveira has to offer Saturday.
When this bout does go to the mat, and it will, Oliveira must manipulate positioning in order to encourage the eager Russian to make a mistake. Makhachev’s path to victory is from ground position, and more precisely from top position. Oliveira can win this fight from the floor or from the feet but his best path to victory is to catch the Russian coming in with a strike.
Based on Oliveira’s experience, his three recent, dynamic finish wins against legitimate top-five talent (Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler) and the fact that his opponent has yet to compete against any top-flight lightweight talent, I have an easy time siding with the current champion in this bout.
The “ ’Bout Business Podcast” released Oliveira + 195 at open and readers should watch closely as his price may rise as we near the opening bell.
Pick: Oliveira + 160 or better
Reed Kuhn: The main event features two successful grapplers with opposing styles. With a wrestler versus a submission ace, the question boils down to “will he or won’t he” with respect to Oliveira locking in a submission.
Oliveira’s success with submissions could be why his takedown defense is below average, often willing to work from his back. That means Makhachev will have no trouble getting this fight to the ground but will have to remain vigilant and conservative in his attacks and position, especially early on.
The opposing wild-card factors make the matchup tricky, and prices are unlikely to diverge. The lean is for Makhachev but not enough for a big play.
Aljamain Sterling (-175) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (+ 150)
Bantamweight title fight (135 pounds) | Co-main event
Total in this fight: 4.5 rounds (Over -195)
Lou Finocchiaro: The MMA world disregarded Aljamain Sterling in his title defense against Petr Yan in April. Sterling reacted by standing tall and defeating the Russian convincingly. Sterling fights out of Serra-Longo in New York and spends time in Las Vegas at the UFC Performance Institute under the tutelage of Xtreme Couture’s Eric Nicksick, so he arrives prepared.
Sterling now faces ex-champion T.J. Dillashaw, who has used banned substances to enhance his performances. Sure, Dillashaw, 36, is now being well tested by USADA, but in the world of cheating, if one is so inclined then one can find a way to remain one step ahead of the testing. Many believe this is the case with Dillashaw. Sterling himself has voiced that opinion.
Juiced or not, this fight comes down to Sterling being able to force Dillashaw into the later rounds, where it’s my take that the champion will hold advantages in cardio, strength and grappling. Sterling’s only 33 and has been very active, while Dillashaw arrives after time away to heal from shoulder surgeries as well serve his suspension for banned substances.
This should be a high-paced, competitive fight, but Sterling’s youth, speed, cardio and the fact that he’s competing in his prime all provide him an advantage over an extremely skilled fighter in Dillashaw, who understands that this is his final chance at regaining the bantamweight championship (for a third time) and has proven to go to any length to capture that belt.
Pick: Monitoring