Thursday was mostly spent waiting around for the NFL season-opener.
Oh, I ran a few errands and signed up a couple more proxy clients for the big contests here in town (and then submitted the plays of the handful of contestants who wanted to use the game: 3 on Bills, 2 on Rams). After all the lead-up to the game, I was let down by the defending champs they lost 31-10 to the Bills and I lost my Best Bet on 2-team, 6-point teasers on the Rams + 8.5 to the four other teasers I like on Sunday I felt good at halftime when the Rams pulled even at 10-10. A lot of people on our network talk about in-game wagering and halftime betting, especially on our night-time programming, so I hope some readers recognized this was a decent spot to hedge/shoot for a middle with the Bills pick-’em or -1. The middle didn’t come through, but those holding Rams + 8.5 could have cut their losses a little. Personally, I didn’t bet it as I really believed the Rams could stay within 8 points in the second half, and I didn’t want to give away any potential profits. Alas, the Bills shut them out 21-0 the rest of the way to cover the 2-point spread and defeat the teasers as well, but it’s something to keep in mind as we’ll see similar situations like this throughout the season. I also lost my top MLB play on the Marlins 1st 5 + 105 at the Phillies. The weak-hitting Marlins actually led 4-3 heading into the bottom of the 5th innings, but Sandy Alcantara wasn’t able to close the door and they lost the 1st 5 by a score of 5-4. However, the Marlins re-rallied to win 6-5 and snap their 9-game losing streak at + 115 for those playing the full-game money line. Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s (full-game) betting results and then look for more plays on Friday. For newcomers to “Tuley’s Takes Today,” we’ll also rerun my takes on the full NFL card like we’ve been doing since Wednesday as we know a lot of readers won’t be betting until the weekend.Thursday’s recaps
NFL: Bills beat the Rams 31-10 Thursday night to kick off the regular season. The Bills also easily covered after closing as 2-point road favorites. The game stayed Under the closing betting total of 52 points
MLB: Underdogs went 4-3 Thursday with the upsets by the Nationals (+ 230 in 11-6 win at Cardinals), Twins (+ 129 in 4-3 win at Yankees), Reds (+ 126 in 4-3 win at Cubs) and Marlins (+ 118 in 6-5 win at Phillies to snap 9-game losing streak). Road teams went 5-2. Overs led 4-3.
More MLB: Faves lead 1,228-795 SU (60.7 percent) on the season with 30 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,086-965 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 1,008-936-106 (51.9 percent).
Friday’s Takes
Marlins 1st 5 + TBD vs. Mets: The Marlins let us down with the 1st 5 on Thursday, but they should be feeling good about themselves after rallying to beat the Phillies 6-5 and snap their 9-game losing streak. They’re in a classic “swagger” spot and hopefully build on that momentum after scoring a whopping (for them) 6 runs. Miami’s Edward Cabrera (4-2, 2.39 ERA, 1.06 ERA) gets the start. The Mets haven’t announced a starter, which is why there weren’t any lines on this game overnight, but regardless who starts, we should be getting a nice plus-price on the Marlins.
A’s 1st 5 + 120 vs. White Sox: Oakland starter James Kapriellan (3-9, 4.79 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) has let us down the last couple of times we’ve backed him recently after he was good to us earlier this summer. We’re hoping he returns to that form like the time he held these White Sox to 1 run in the first 6 innings as the A’s cashed the 1st 5 by a score of 3-1 and went on to a 7-3 victory. The White Sox have fought their way into the AL Central race, but Luis Giolito has also been inconsistent himself, so I see this as us getting 6-5 on a coin-flip.
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of “Tuley’s Takes Today,” which starting this year will be where I post my popular, long-running NFL column where I give my “takes” on every game on the NFL schedule.
I’ve written it the last five seasons in VSiN’s digital online magazine, “Point Spread Weekly,” but we’re rearranged how we provide our contest to VSiN subscribers and we’re combining my weekly column into these daily columns so we can offer fresher opinions (and we’ll keep it at the bottom of our columns throughout the weekend and be able to update our recommended wagers in case there are changes in the lines due to injuries, COVID issues, weather or any other reason, including plain market movements).
For the newbies joining us, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so in most games I’ll be basically trying to see if I feel I’m getting enough points to take the underdog. However, I believe it should be pointed out that even though I only bet dogs, I don’t bet every dog. The “pass” part of my mantra is a valid opinion where I believe it’s best to just stay away and look for other games to bet. I’m also proud to mention that I have heard from many chalk bettors (or at least those that play far more favorites than I do) over the years that they love when I pass on a dog because they see it as a “buy sign” on the favorite because I was unable to make a case for the dog. Again, I believe that’s a valid, logical way to approach my takes on the games.
Now, this Week 1 is going to have a different feel than the columns the rest of the season as these lines have been up since May and have settled for the most part (though we’ll note some exceptions in the individual games).
Also, if you were reading my columns when the schedule was released, you probably remember that I only liked three opening lines: Dolphins -2.5 vs. the Patriots, Jaguars + 4.5 at the Commanders and Cowboys + 3 vs. the Buccaneers (and hopefully a lot of you bet them as we’re in great positions now whether we decided to let our bets ride since we have the best numbers or try to shoot for some “middles” or “sides”). For those who don’t know, a “middle” is when you bet both teams in a game (like -2.5 and + 3.5) and the final margin lands in the middle, so you win both bets. A “side” is when the margin lands on one of the numbers (such as -2 and + 3) and you win one bet and push the other.
Since most readers aren’t in that position, we’re going to go through all the games as if we’re all just betting the games this week and looking for the best bets on the opening-weekend card.
Another way this column is different than coming weeks is we’re going to rely very heavily on teasers. In fact, I already gave out several teasers on my weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” at 9:15 p.m. PT Sunday and in the earlier versions of this column this week. I’ll cite those as we go through the games along with my Best Bet if betting ATS. And if I happen to pass, I’ll still give my “pool play” recommendations because I know a lot of readers are in pools where you have to play every game.
Without further ado, here come my “takes.”
Note: Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of Tuesday night. Check out VSIN.com's live NFL odds page here for current odds.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
The season-opener is the first of 10 – count ‘em, 10 – road favorites, the most ever in a Week 1. The defending Super Bowl champion Rams opened as a 1-point home favorites, but the Bills are the future-book fave (around 6-1) and are up to 2.5-point road chalk. It’s getting more tempting to grab the Rams as home dogs, but the sharpest play looks like it’s to tease the Rams up to + 8.5 on a 6-point teaser. I’m doing that with the other four “advantage teasers” (also known as “Wong teaser” for the old-timers) that capture the key number of 3 and 7: Ravens (-1 at Jets), Colts (-1 at Texans), Vikings (+ 8 vs. Packers) and Cowboys + 8.5 vs. Buccaneers).
Best Bet: Pass, but Rams in teasers LOSS (pool play: Rams 55/45 in my rare SU and ATS contests that use Thursday night games).
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New York Jets
This line opened Ravens -4.5 and climbed not only because bettors like the Ravens but also as Zach Wilson was expected to miss the opener. There’s been rumblings that he might start instead of Joe Flacco, but the line has held steady at 7, which is fine with us as it’s in teaser range. As I discussed on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” I like to group my teasers (or parlays) by starting times to resist the urge to hedge – just like I used to do with NHL 1st Period Overs for those that were part of our hot run in the winter and spring of 2019 – so the two-teamer I’m playing in the early Sunday games is Ravens -1/Colts -1.
Best Bet: Pass, but Ravens in teasers (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests – though would be 100 percent on -6.5 or + 7.5 if offered those in ATS contests – and around 80/20 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
We have yet another road fave in this NFC South opener. This line has also creeped up from -3.5 to -5.5, which is probably more due to bettors ignoring or choosing to fade the Falcons with Matt Ryan gone and being replaced by Marcus Mariota. It’ll be interesting to see how Jameis Winston fares in his 2nd year as the starting QB in New Orleans. Before he suffered an ACL tear and missed the second half last year, he had thrown 14 TD passes and had just 3 INTs, which has long been his biggest problem.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints around 60/40 in ATS contests and at least 75/25 in SU pools).
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
As mentioned above, I bet the Dolphins -2.5 back in May because I truly believed this line would be bet to the key number of 3. And if it stayed there, I would have probably let my bet ride, but with it now crossing the key number and giving us the hook at + 3.5, the betting value has flipped to the Patriots as we don’t see the Dolphins that much better than the Pats. When I’m trying to set up middles like this, it’s more common for me to bet about 20-25 percent back on the other side, but in this case I’m going to come “over the top” and bet more on the Patriots.
Best Bet: Patriots + 3.5 (pool play: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests, though Dolphins still slightly more in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (pick)
The Browns opened as 4.5-point faves (so there should be 11 road chalk!) but that was before it became apparent that Deshaun Watson was going to be suspended, causing this line to flip. I’m not the biggest Jacoby Brissett fan, but there now seems to be more value on the Browns as short road dogs. They still have the better overall team, but with the line so short I just can’t pull the trigger. This could be another game to add to the teaser portfolio as you can tease the Browns up over a full TD. (Editor's note: this line was back to pick-'em at DraftKings and most other books as of early Friday morning.
Best Bet: Pass, and Browns no longer in teasers (pool play: Browns around 55/45 in both SU and ATS contests).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
This line has stayed pretty solid at Bengals -6.5 after taking over the AFC North last season and making a trip to the Super Bowl. A case could be made that the Bengals are the better team (and some will tease them down to basically pick-’em), but we also need to beware of the Super Bowl loser’s hangover. That has me on the fence about taking the Steelers despite having to trust Mitch Trubisky as he was named Ben Roethlisberger’s successor on Tuesday. We’d like it a lot better at + 7, though that seems unlikely.
Best Bet: Pass, but reserving right to change mind if we get + 7 (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 70/30 in SU pools).