Alt win totals provide hidden value
The popularity of alternate win total markets has really boomed here in recent years. NFL bettors often use these bets in their preseason futures portfolio, almost solely because of how tough it is for oddsmakers to accurately predict how many wins a team will end up with at the end of a regular seasonFor context, last year – depending on the book – about 35% of NFL team win totals were off by three or more wins. With more books posting more alt win options (or just posting any options in the first place), this market has seen increased action with NBA bettors too. And the edge in these markets is there on the NBA side, just like it is on the NFL side.
Now, that’s not meant to be disrespectful to the extremely talented oddsmakers around the country. But, things like injuries, along with in-season trades and transactions, can drastically affect a team’s season over 82 games. And naturally, we get teams that will fall short of, or far surpass, preseason expectations on the court. More games, more trades, more injuries, more variance. Consequently, it’s extremely difficult for oddsmakers to get close to the actual win total outcome year after year.
I went back to the three full seasons we’ve had since COVID and added up how many teams’ preseason win totals were off by 3+ games and how many were off by 5+ games: