MLB schedule today has 11 games
Twenty-two teams will try to avoid a case of the Mondays on September 18, as we’ll have 11 games on the card. Only one day game is in the mix, as the Guardians and Royals play a random matinee to kick off their weekday set. All of the other games will conclude under the lights, as we approach the Autumn Equinox on Thursday.
As the weather is cooling off, the bats might be as well. Teams only batted .243/.316/.399 this past week with a .311 wOBA. The 95 wRC+ collectively across the league means that offense was 5% below league average for the season. The K% jumped back up to 23%. I expected offense to stay hot through the rest of the year with tired pitchers and call-ups, but pitchers had the upper hand last week.
We’ll see what this week has in store, but the cooler temperatures could be playing a part to be sure.
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Here are some thoughts on the September 18 card (odds from DraftKings):
New York Mets at Miami Marlins (-155, 8.5)
Jose Butto and Edward Cabrera are the listed starters here, as Cabrera gets the straight start as opposed to being a bulk reliever like he has been in his last two appearances since getting recalled from the minors. Cabrera has only allowed two runs on two hits in 8.2 innings, but he has walked eight guys. He’s also struck out 13.
The Fish are riding a high after sweeping the Braves over the weekend. Atlanta had a major lull after clinching the NL East and now the advantage for the No. 1 seed is down to 4.5 games over the Dodgers, who clinched the NL West over the weekend. The Marlins are still 18.5 games back in the division, but their weekend has them tied with the Cubs for the final Wild Card spot, as the Cubs have dropped five in a row.
I’m not sure I’d trust Cabrera with all the walks, as that’s what got him sent down in the first place, but I have no interest in Butto against a Marlins team playing well and one that is 43-32 at home compared to 35-40 on the road. Miami’s low offensive profile lends itself better to home games, as many of their pitchers have home/road splits.
Butto has a 3.46 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and a 4.07 FIP in 26 innings at the MLB level, but his ERA and FIP were nearly 6.00 in 91 innings at Triple-A.
Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 9.5) at Atlanta Braves
As mentioned, the Braves had a rough weekend with a bit of a hangover in South Beach. They wouldn’t be the first group of guys to have hangovers deep in the Sunshine State. But, they’ll need to get back on track this week at home. This one features Zack Wheeler and Kyle Wright, as the Phillies try to put a chokehold on the NL Wild Card. They are 3.5 games up on the Diamondbacks.
I would think that the Braves would love to eliminate the possibility of playing the Phillies, who bounced them from the playoffs last season, so maybe this will be the time when they flip the switch again and get re-engaged in the action.
Unfortunately, they’ll start the series with Wright, who allowed six runs on six hits to the Phillies a week ago in his first MLB start since May 3. Wright had three strikeouts against two walks and allowed a 66.7% Hard Hit% with a 16.7% Barrel% in that start. He allowed three runs over 8.1 minor league innings before getting recalled to join the rotation.
Wheeler did not fare well six days ago in this matchup, as he allowed six runs on seven hits, including three homers, in his five innings of work. He struck out four and walked three, so he was not sharp in any facet. He’s been good more often than not this season, but that was a pretty awful start against Atlanta less than a week ago and it can be tough for pitchers facing a lineup for a second straight start. Nothing from me in this one.
Milwaukee Brewers (-175, 8.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
Normally I’ve been skipping over these big favorites, but Adam Wainwright is on the mound here for the Redbirds, so we might as well talk about it. Wainwright was actually the winning pitcher last time out against the Orioles with two runs on seven hits over five innings. That was win No. 199, so he’s going for 200 tonight. I’m not sure we’ll see the Cardinals more invested than they will be tonight, as Waino only has two starts left at Busch Stadium for his career. He’s on track to start Friday September 29 against the Reds.
I’m not sure Wainwright gets it tonight, as Freddy Peralta has been stellar this season for the Brewers. He has a 3.79 ERA with a 3.76 FIP, but he has a 2.01 ERA and a 2.03 FIP in his last nine starts with 82 strikeouts over 53.2 innings of work. He’s allowed more than three runs just once in a start since June 11. With that kind of baseline, and the numbers for Wainwright, it looks like an uphill climb.
But, we don’t have to worry about whether or not the Cardinals want to be at the ballpark tonight. You know they’ll be out there fighting for 50 and I’ll be rooting for him tonight. Just not with my money.
Cleveland Guardians (-130, 9.5) at Kansas City Royals
In the “baseball makes no freaking sense” department, the Guardians, who looked pretty sad on a 2-5 West Coast trip swept a Rangers team that spent the early part of last week outright dominating the Blue Jays. Now Cleveland hits the road for some good BBQ in Kansas City.
Cal Quantrill gets the call in the series opener and Cleveland is laying a short number against Brady Singer. Since returning from a second IL stint, Quantrill has throw the ball well. He’s allowed three runs on 10 hits over 18 innings of work. He only has 10 strikeouts against eight walks, but he has allowed just a 31.4% Hard Hit% and an 82.2 mph average exit velocity in that span against the Rays, Angels, and Giants.
Singer has allowed six runs twice since coming off the paternity list. Both starts came against the White Sox, so that’s not a very good look. He’s also only struck out four of 50 batters faced in that span. Singer has a 5.51 ERA with a 4.26 FIP for the season. The low FIP is a byproduct of a nice BB% and a decent HR rate, but he has allowed six homers in his last four starts and has allowed 22 runs in that span.
It’s an early start, so there isn’t a whole lot of lead time, but Cleveland may not be a bad bet here. I’m not going to bet on them because I don’t really trust their paltry offense and I’m not exactly sure where last weekend came from. I will say that the Guardians and Royals have nearly scored the same number of runs (614, 616), but the Guardians have allowed 629 runs and the Royals have allowed 802.
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers (-162, 8.5)
Hitting a rabbit high on speed from 500 yards away is easier than trying to figure out the Texas Rangers these days. The Rangers still hold the final Wild Card spot in the AL playoff race, but after sweeping Toronto to deal a serious blow to their playoff hopes in a series full of two-game swings, the Blue Jays have jumped back over them.
Jordan Montgomery gets the call today and the Rangers need a good effort. He did exactly that with seven shutout innings five days ago against a Toronto lineup that has hit lefties really well this season. That was on the heels of allowing 14 runs over three starts against the Twins x2 and Athletics. Montgomery only had three strikeouts out of 25 batters faced, but did an excellent job of limiting hard contact against Toronto.
The problem with fading Texas here is that the Red Sox have dropped eight of 10 and four in a row. The organization is in a state of flux and stuff like that can trickle down to the field very easily. There is also some speculation that maybe manager Alex Cora will slide into a front office role for next season, so that’s another added wrinkle.