Giants-Diamondbacks prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, May 11

Two teams looking to make their move amid the NL West logjam kick off a four-game set tonight as the San Francisco Giants head south to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. First pitch from Phoenix is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Alex Cobb (2-1, 2.01 ERA) looks to continue his strong start for San Francisco against Arizona lefty Tommy Henry (1-0, 5.17).

The Giants enter as -145 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook while the D-backs are +125 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.5.

Giants

Day to day: Austin Slater (hamstring)
Out: SS Brandon Crawford (calf), OF Mike Yastrzemski (hamstring), SP Alex Wood (hamstring)

Diamondbacks

Out: SP Zach Davies (oblique), OF/DH Kyle Lewis (illness), C Carson Kelly (wrist)

Alex Cobb vs. Tommy Henry

The equation for Cobb is relatively simple: When his splitter is on, he's awfully tough to hit. The righty throws the pitch nearly 40 percent of the time, and it's confounded batters this year with a 23.4% whiff rate and just a .311 slugging percentage against. It's been the main reason behind Cobb's recent success, as he's allowed just three runs and 18 hits over his last 21 innings.

Henry's first two starts of the year were pretty ugly, but the lefty bounced back last time out with six innings of two-run ball against the Washington Nationals. He actually has reverse splits, struggling against lefties while excelling against righties thanks to his changeup and curveball. He won't strike out very many batters, but if he's throwing strikes he could produce enough weak contact (80th percentile in hard-hit rate) to find success again.

This number feels a bit high, both considering Cobb's recent form and how badly the Giants have struggled against left-handed starters this year (26th in team OPS). The floor for both of these starters is pretty low, and this game could blow past the over, but I like Cobb to keep it rolling against a somewhat overrated D-backs group while Henry's changeup should allow him to stymie Mitch Haniger, Wilmer Flores and the Giants' righties.

Pick: Under 9.5

Cobb has long flashed the potential to be a frontline starter, and it looks like he's putting it all together right now – if the splitter is working it should chew up an Arizona lineup that's heavy on lefties and give San Fran a win.

Pick: Giants

  
Read Full Article