MLB schedule today has 14 games
Holy offense, Batman! There were 180 runs scored on Monday across the 15 games, for a robust average of 12 runs per game. There was a miscommunication in today’s VSiN Daily Newsletter regarding the note about home runs on Monday, as there were 53 dingers after we saw just 101 HR hit over the first four days of the season.
Most of yesterday’s starters hadn’t pitched in a week or more since leaving Spring Training or got their final tune-ups in minor league games, but we also saw a batting average of .259 and there were 173 singles out of the 275 hits. Yesterday’s K% was also just 20.5%. It is only one day of data, but we had mostly fourth and fifth starters on the mound yesterday and guys like that are going to be far more impacted by the shift ban than others. That will be something to watch for as the season moves forward.
I do only have one play today, but there are a lot of starters to research and follow, so I’ve shared a lot of information in today’s article.
Yesterday’s offensive explosion also skewed the data about some early returns on the shift ban that I was going to post this afternoon, but that will still go out so we can all take a look. I’ll have to re-run the numbers and get that out later today. (Tracking sheet)
Also coming later is the latest edition of the VSiN Daily Baseball Bets podcast, which I hope to have out by around 3 p.m. ET.
Here are some thoughts on the April 4 card (odds from DraftKings):
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (-150, 7)
For the first time this season, we’re starting to get repeat starters, so guys that have a 2023 data point are making their second trips to the mound. We have one in this game, as Zac Gallen will give it a go at Petco Park. Gallen gave up five runs on six hits with seven strikeouts and three walks against the Dodgers in his season-opening start, while Yu Darvish is taking the hill for the first time.
Darvish pitched for Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic, so he got bumped back a little bit. He also only pitched twice in the WBC with one start and one relief outing in the Championship Game against Team USA. He was not announced on Opening Day for the Padres because he was pitching a minor league game for his last Spring Training start. It’s tough to know how sharp Darvish will be in this one with such an odd spring and also how far the Padres will be pushing him. He threw 80 pitches over five innings in that March 30 minor league start.
I think it’s tough to expect Darvish to be at his best in this outing. Gallen’s velocity was a full tick below 2022, though, so he’s still trying to get into the rhythms of the season. Arizona has also used Scott McGough and Andrew Chafin three of the last four days and Miguel Castro has pitched back-to-back days, so the pen is a little iffy after last night’s walk-off loss. No bet here, but let’s see how Darvish looks.
Chicago Cubs (-130, 9) at Cincinnati Reds
One of yesterday’s high-scoring affairs was this one, as Drew Smyly got three runs from his offense in the top of the first and the top of the fifth and gave back three runs both times in yesterday’s lone loser out of the three picks. Today’s two starters have not pitched yet, as Hayden Wesneski takes the ball for the Cubs and Luis Cessa goes for the Reds.
Wesneski pitched 33 innings at the MLB level after being acquired from New York in the Scott Effross deal. He had a 2.18 ERA with a 3.20 FIP in four starts and two relief efforts with 33 strikeouts against seven walks and only allowed eight earned runs on 24 hits. Wesneski also had solid Triple-A numbers for the Yankees before heading to the PCL for the Cubs, where bad luck with men on base led to a 5.66 ERA. He had a 3.36 FIP over those 20.2 innings.
He had a terrific spring and made the Cubs starting rotation with relative ease in the fifth spot. He also held opponents to just a 25.8% Hard Hit% in 89 batted ball events last season at the MLB level with a deep arsenal and a wipeout slider. There is a lot to like here, but we’re not getting a bargain today.
That’s because Cessa is a below average pitcher in a lot of respects. He owns a 4.13 ERA and a 4.66 FIP over 399 MLB innings, where he’s primarily been used as a reliever. He made 10 starts last season for the Reds and had a 4.30 ERA with a .247/.304/.446 slash against and a .325 wOBA against. He wasn’t any better as a reliever and finished the year with a 4.57 ERA and a 5.02 FIP.
Cessa had a really good spring, but his 10 starts from last season got added on to the 19 he made from 2016-18, so he hasn’t been starting full-time for a long time. I’m always skeptical of guys like that, but this is a pretty decent price to pay on the Cubs and it’s too rich for my blood. I could see a Wesneski strikeout prop if you’re into that sort of thing, though.
Temps are in the 70s with high humidity, so even though the wind is blowing in a little from RF, the weather conditions here may be conducive for some offense.
New York Mets (-150, 8) at Milwaukee Brewers
The Metropolitans are a big road favorite against the Brewers, which will happen when the listed starters are Max Scherzer and Wade Miley. Scherzer seemed to tire a bit later in his start against the Marlins, but he didn’t have his sharpest stuff overall. He struck out four of the first nine batters he faced and only allowed a measly single and then walked two and gave up a double the second time through the order, but no damage otherwise. The Marlins scored three in the sixth and tied the game, but the bullpen and the offense bailed out the Mets and they came away with a 5-3 win.
All in all, he allowed three runs on four hits with six strikeouts against two walks. He only allowed four hard-hit balls, but two were barreled. His velocity was down a full tick after a drop in 2022, so that will be something to keep an eye on between his age and the pitch clock. He had 13 whiffs on 49 swings and the spin rates looked fine, but his velo was down around 1 mph across the board.
We have no 2023 data points for Miley and 2022 ones are scarce. He only pitched 37 innings last season due to injury and posted a 3.16 ERA with a 3.95 FIP. He made four starts from May 10-June 10 and then didn’t return again until September 6. He had a 3.50 ERA with a 4.67 FIP over those final 18 innings of the year. Spring Training stats don’t normally tell us a ton, but for reference, Miley threw 10.2 innings and allowed six hits (3 HR) and five runs with eight strikeouts and four walks.
I’m curious to see what happens with Milwaukee on offense in this game. The one knock on Scherzer in two of the last three seasons has been giving up the long ball. The Brewers were third in HR last season and fourth in home homers with 110. They left cold Chicago, came home, and dropped a 10-spot on the Mets last night. I thought about the over here if I could get a couple of Brewers homers, preferably with someone on base, because I don’t have very high hopes for Miley here, but I couldn’t quite get there at 8.
Miley owns a 49.2% GB% for his career and just an 18.4% K%. He pitches to a lot of contact and is not a great guy to bet on with the shift ban. A lot of back-end starters seem to be struggling because strikeouts are more valuable than ever and a lot of those guys don’t get them with any frequency. Miley is going for his 100th career win, for whatever that’s worth.
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (-135, 10)
A couple of southpaws take the mound at Busch Stadium here, as we’ll see Dylan Dodd make his Major League debut for the Braves and see the return of Steven Matz for the Redbirds. I ran a =10&submit= S D Q L ! “>query this morning in the KillerSports database and this is only the fourth double-digit total at Busch Stadium since the 2009 season. July 3, 2017 (Wainwright vs. Jeff Locke), August 20, 2019 (Wacha vs. Gio Gonzalez) and August 8, 2021 (Jon Lester vs. Kris Bubic) are the only others with a total of 10 or higher.
Dodd has only thrown 53 innings at Double-A or Triple-A, with just 6.2 innings at Triple-A, so he’s been fast-tracked a little bit to the bigs. The SEMO State product had a 4.02 ERA in college, but did post a 233/46 K/BB ratio over 199.1 innings of work. As a minor leaguer, he owns a 3.87 ERA with a 173/34 K/BB ratio in 156 innings of work. He was good in his 46.1 Double-A innings with a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate, which is basically his scouting report. It’s a different kind of beast taking on this Cardinals lineup, which is off to a blistering .356/.409/.537 start as a team over 164 plate appearances.
The Cardinals should also project well against lefties with guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras in the middle of the order, as well as Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Walker and Tommy Edman at the bottom. They haven’t seen a lefty yet, but I think we’ll likely see them throw at least seven righties at Dodd in this one. Dodd didn’t show any big platoon splits last season in the minors and even had a solid 24.5% K% against righties, but the Cardinals lineup does not have any minor leaguers in it.
Matz only threw 48 innings last season for the Cardinals over 10 starts and five relief outings. He had a 5.25 ERA, but did have a 3.64 xERA and a 3.78 FIP, so he fell on the wrong side of some bad luck. His 66.9% LOB% was a big part of the high ERA and his FIP was helped by a 54/10 K/BB ratio, even though he did allow eight homers in limited action. The Braves project to be a lineup that should hit lefties very well this season, so Matz will have to be sharp.
The pitching matchup helps the high total, but so does a stiff breeze blowing out to LF on a warm day in the Arch City. No play here, as I can’t play an historical outlier and this total also opened 9 flat most places and even 8.5 here at Westgate in Vegas, but shot up like a rocket. I can’t trust Matz or Dodd enough on the side, though I could see a case in which the Braves are worthy of a bet in a slugfest, but the Cardinals were the best offense in baseball by wOBA and wRC+ against lefties last season by a large margin.
Atlanta, by the way, was No. 2 in that department.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-260, 7.5)
Just wanted to throw a quick mention on this game. The stat line shows that German Marquez, who has those huge home/road splits I’ve mentioned before, pitched well last week against the Padres with six innings of two-run ball with zero walks, but he did allow 12 hard-hit balls out of 19 balls in play and two barrels. The command wasn’t spectacular and he had a career-worst 46.8% Hard Hit% last season.
His velocity was up and he didn’t walk anybody, so I guess those are two positives, but he gave up a ton of hard contact and didn’t really get burned for it. We’ll see if the Dodgers make similar high-velocity contact and have better results on it, but I’m going to hold off on doing anything with Marquez on the road until I see those numbers improve. High-velocity contact should be worse in a post-shift world.
Interestingly, Urias had a pretty similar line, with seven of his 14 batted balls classified as hard-hit and a 92.9 mph exit velocity. He, too, allowed two runs over six innings with zero walks, but allowed some hard-hit balls. He pitched for Mexico in the WBC, so he had a bit of a weird spring.
Toronto Blue Jays (-170, 10) at Kansas City Royals
A couple of lefties take the mound on what could be a rough day at Kauffman Stadium. It was a rough day for the Blue Jays yesterday, as Kansas City’s offense unloaded for nine runs against Jose Berrios and the bullpen, but Toronto scratched out theirs with five runs, mostly after Brady Singer left the game.
This will not be a fun night to pitch with 20-25 mph winds blowing out towards left on a pretty warm night in KC with temperatures in the 80s at first pitch. Rain does move in late, so we’ll have to see if they can get the game finished in time. Perhaps the pitch clock will help in this one.
The pitching matchup also seems to lend itself to runs. Kikuchi has not had much success since coming over from Japan, as he owns a 5.02 ERA with a 5.08 FIP in his 466.1 innings of work. He has allowed 89 home runs over his four seasons and 86 homers over his three full seasons, as he pitched pretty well in the COVID year. He gave up 23 long balls in 100.2 innings last season over 20 starts and 12 relief efforts. He gave up 19 HR in 82.1 innings as a starter and a .368 wOBA, so there really aren’t a lot of reasons to believe in his profile for this season. Kikuchi has allowed a career .508 SLG to right-handed batters.
This also looks to be a really bad spot for Bubic, who has a 4.89 ERA with a 4.93 FIP in his 309 career MLB innings. The odd thing is that Bubic has actually fared better against righties with a .337 wOBA against in 1,105 plate appearances, while lefties own a .413 wOBA in 260, but not all righties are created like what the Blue Jays are throwing out there.
To make matters worse, Bubic has a 10.5% BB% for his career to go with a below average K% of 20%. Last season, his K% actually dropped to 18.7%, with no improvement in his BB%. He also allowed a career-worst 44.9% Hard Hit%.
This is obviously a big total, but the shift ban is going to hurt dudes without elite stuff or elite K% and these two fit the bill. Anything hit in the air to LF is going to get a boost and we have two lefties on the mound with 7-8 righties in the Toronto lineup and at least six for the Royals in all likelihood. I also don’t have much love for either one of these bullpens.
We’re laying a little vig on the 10, but this game should have all kinds of runs scored. I think -115 or -120 are fine here on the Over 10 total. This is probably super square, but it would take a Herculean effort for these two not to get bombed today.
Pick: Over 10 (-115)