I recently wrote about some of the best betting trends for NFL head coaches in late-season games. But there’s another aspect of the game that I find perhaps even more important in handicapping: quarterback play. There is no more important position in all of sports betting, and that includes starting pitchers in baseball. To put it simply, teams that are good at the QB position in the NFL always seem to be in the hunt for the postseason. Those that have an annual carousel of signal callers are usually home for the playoffs, changing head coaches and looking forward to replacing their quarterback in the upcoming draft.
Of course, as bettors, we generally believe that team success translates into point-spread success, so naturally, teams with better quarterbacks make for better bets. With that in mind, I dug into my database of NFL results and analyzed the game logs for each current starting quarterback. I examined their betting performance records in many scenarios, including home/road, line ranges, specific opponent, performance with current team and/or coach and much more. In the end, my table spit out a total of 4,533 total trends.
You may recognize that this article has changed from recent years, when I labeled it my annual “Quarterback Betting Report.” I figured rather than just regurgitating all of the records and data I discovered, I would instead focus on some of the most definitive and intriguing results. If you’re curious about any other angles or specific records for certain quarterbacks, feel free to reach out and I’ll do what I can to find out.
With all of that said, here are 25 of the top QB betting trends you’ll want to make note of and recall for future reference, along with my analysis:
* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS (100%) as a road underdog. The average line was +3.1, team average PF: 36.4
Steve’s thoughts: This is obviously a rare angle for Mahomes and the Chiefs as they are almost always favored. However, when they are in the underdog role on the road they have thrived, scoring 36.4 PPG on average. Underdog or favorite, teams scoring that much on any trend will fare well.
* Russell Wilson (DEN) is 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS (100%) vs. John Harbaugh. The average line was -1.4, team average PF: 21.9
Steve’s thoughts: I was fortunate enough to catch this angle before last weekend. Wilson and the Broncos took on the Ravens on Sunday in Baltimore and nearly won as 9-point dogs, falling victim to a late touchdown and dropping a 10-9 decision. It was the seventh ATS win in a row for Wilson vs. Harbaugh.
* Tom Brady (TB) is 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS (91%) as a home underdog. The average line was +4, team average PF: 31.8
Steve’s thoughts: This is another angle that has been very rare, as Brady has been a home underdog only 12 times in his illustrious career, winning 75% of those opportunities outright and 91% against the Vegas number. Like Mahomes on the road, Brady’s home dog teams have scored very well, averaging 31.8 PPG. This trend figures to get tested in a couple of weeks when the Bucs host surging Cincinnati.
* Jared Goff (DET) is 8-17 SU but 17-8 ATS (68%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +5.8, team average PF: 22.5
Steve’s thoughts: Including a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS record in the last five games, the combination of QB Goff and HC Campbell has produced big profits for bettors for the last two seasons. In the last 16 games the Lions have played with this combination, they have scored 29 points or more nine times. Goff figures to be a factor in the playoff races over the next two weeks, with games at home against Minnesota and at the Jets coming up.
* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS (89%) as a home favorite. The average line was -7.4, team average PF: 31.1
Steve’s thoughts: One of the reasons this trend stood out to me, besides the glowing record, is the average lines of the games involved in the sample. Nowadays in the NFL, you don’t see too many home favorites averaging more than a TD, and furthermore, you see even fewer playing well in that role. However, Hurts’ Eagles have averaged 31.1 PPG when hosting overmatched foes and have essentially taken care of business in a role not many other teams do. The Eagles host the Saints and Giants to close the regular season, and assuming playoff stakes are on the line, they will be home favorites in both games.
* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 6-7-1 SU and 12-2 ATS (86%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +4.3, team average PF: 24.3
Steve’s thoughts: With the average NFL team scoring right around 22 PPG since Burrow has been in the league, it’s impressive to see his Bengals averaging 24.3 PPG in the small underdog role. I prefer to back underdogs capable of scoring points and staying in games or coming from behind. While Burrow’s teams are under .500 outright in this trend, they have proved to be good money producers for ATS backers. Two potential but uncertain opportunities remain in the 2022 regular season to see this trend again, at Tampa Bay on Dec. 18 and at New England on Dec. 24.
* Aaron Rodgers (GB) is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS (86%) as a home underdog. The average line was +2.6, team average PF: 27.6
Steve’s thoughts: Like Brady, Rodgers has rarely been a home underdog. It’s happened only seven times in his career. The best players in any sport tend to step up when the betting world disses them, and Rodgers would naturally take motivation from being an underdog at Lambeau Field. His Packers teams have scored 27.6 PPG in this trend and have won most often. Green Bay could be a home dog to Minnesota on New Year’s Day.
* Lamar Jackson (BAL) is 8-5 SU and 11-2 ATS (85%) as an underdog. The average line was +3.1, team average PF: 24.8
Steve’s thoughts: If you’re sensing a pattern, the best quarterbacks in the league tend to do well when the oddsmakers take a stand against them. Jackson and the Ravens are not underdogs very often, but when they are, they thrive. Like all of the other underdog examples pointed out so far, the elite quarterback’s team can score in the role, in this case, 24.8 PPG. Jackson’s knee injury diagnosis is still unclear, but assuming he’s good to go, it’s possible he and the Ravens could be an underdog in the season finale at Cincinnati with a division title on the line.
* Aaron Rodgers (GB) is 25-5 SU and 23-7 ATS (77%) versus CHICAGO. The average line was -5, team average PF: 26.8
Steve’s thoughts: Surely everyone is familiar with Rodgers’ success against the Bears, with his famous “I still own you” proclamation from 2021 being recalled often on Sunday as the Packers notched another victory in Chicago. Like his processor, Brett Favre, the Packers’ QB has driven Bears fans nuts since his arrival. Hopefully Sunday’s game wasn’t the last in the huge rivalry featuring Rodgers.