Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 1-1 with last Sunday’s best bets and closed out the week with a very mediocre 3-3 record. Since the calendar is now firmly entrenched in August, the finish line of a marathon baseball season is coming into clear focus. One thing I’ve noticed so far this month is that early scoring has tailed off a bit. The NRFI is 75-59 (55.81%) so far in August netting over 16 units. I’ll be sure to keep an eye on that trend down the stretch. Onward we go into a new week.
Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, August 11th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays
Javier Assad has made just two starts this season, but he’s gone NRFI in both. He’s also been pitching really well since July 1st with a 1.17 ERA in nine total appearances. If the Blue Jays miss the postseason, it won't be Jose Berrios’ fault. The ace is pitching like one with a 19-4 NRFI record and an impressive 2.89 ERA in five starts since the break. He’s only allowed one first-inning home run in 23 starts all season.
Neither lineup really scares me in this spot, especially Toronto. The Blue Jays have scored just four times in 26 games since the All-Star break. Their 24% first-inning scoring rate at home this season is one of the lowest in MLB and well below the 32.5% average for home teams. Meanwhile, the Cubs have the second-lowest road scoring rate of any team this season at 16% just in front of the Mets.
I particularly like the price of this bet being in plus-money territory. I was able to find plenty of +105 and +100 in the market and would feel comfortable playing this one all the way up to -110.