The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Wednesday, December 20, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, CHICAGO, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, CHARLOTTE, NEW YORK, DENVER, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It was a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA last season, that group produced a 19-11 ATS record (63.3%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 30 games was only 3.9% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it's safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, DENVER, LA LAKERS, HOUSTON, BOSTON
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority groups was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): INDIANA ML
A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-CLE, CHA-IND, LAC-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CHA-IND
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rdStraightHome game were 46-18 SU and 39-22-3 ATS (63.9%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game last season.
12/20: SACRAMENTO vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-2.5 vs BOS)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 24-8 SU and 22-10 ATS (68.8%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
12/20: SACRAMENTO vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-2.5 vs BOS)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA was 27-8 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
12/20: Over the total in HOUSTON-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 234)
* INDIANA is 53-30 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
12/20: Over the total in INDIANA-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 248)
* PHILADELPHIA is 21-11 SU and 20-12 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
12/20: PHILADELPHIA vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs MIN)
* TORONTO is 29-6 SU and 27-8 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
12/20: TORONTO vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+4 vs DEN)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 110-29 SU and 92-47 ATS (66.2%) run.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (*only if they become a favorite in the -4.5 to -9.5 range, -3.5 currently vs. MIN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-55 (54.5%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 117-87 (57.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 166-114 (59.3%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-IND (o/u at 248)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 193-196 SU and 163-216-10 ATS (43%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-5 vs UTA), FADE LA CLIPPERS (-3 at DAL), FADE SACRAMENTO (-2.5 vs BOS)
- NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 169-191 SU and 153-205-2 ATS (42.7%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (-4 at TOR), FADE LA CLIPPERS (-3 at DAL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 45-40 SU and 48-35-3 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (-10 vs CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 151-194 ATS (43.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-87 SU and 42-60-3 ATS (41.2%).
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-3 at DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 33-51 ATS (39.3%) in the next game, including 14-27 ATS (34.1%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-3 at DAL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +3.5 (+1.3), 2. BOSTON +2.5 (+1.2), 3. BROOKLYN +1 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CLEVELAND -5 (+2.7) and INDIANA -10 (+2.7), 3. DENVER -4 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +3.5 (+1.0), 2. BROOKLYN +1 (+1.0), 3. MIAMI +5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -3 (+4.2), 2. SACRAMENTO -2.5 (+1.1), 3. DENVER -4 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-CLE OVER 226.5 (+3.1), 2. MIA-ORL OVER 220 (+1.7), 3. MIN-PHI OVER 226 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-CHI UNDER 225.5 (-1.2), 2. BOS-SAC UNDER 237.5 (-0.7), 3. ATL-HOU UNDER 234 (-0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON +2.5 (+2.0), 2. BROOKLYN +1 (+1.1), 3. MINNESOTA +3.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -5 (+3.0), 2. DENVER -4 (+2.5), 3. INDIANA -10 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-DAL OVER 237 (+2.6), 2. MIA-ORL OVER 220 (+2.3), 3. UTA-CLE OVER 226.5 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-BKN UNDER 233 (-3.9), 2. MIN-PHI UNDER 226 (-3.8), 3. CHA-IND UNDER 248 (-2.9)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(531) UTAH at (532) CLEVELAND
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the UTA-CLE series in Cleveland
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(533) CHARLOTTE at (534) INDIANA
* Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 of the CHA-IND series
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS