Last night we swept the board in a peculiar way as the first inning was the only inning of each game that was scoreless. That’s why we’d rather be lucky than good sometimes when it comes to NRFIs. For tonight, we’re going to be laying the chalk with the best pitching on the slate, but before that, we’ll sweat out a pair of righties that are being undervalued. Let’s find out which arms we’re backing.
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This is perhaps the most overlooked NRFI play on the slate, but a closer look reveals just how much value there is behind these two starters. Triston McKenzie will get us started in the top of the first. He has been electric this month as he’ll enter his sixth start of August with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP, and he’s two starts removed from a dominant 14-strikeout performance against the White Sox. While McKenzie has had issues settling in the first inning this season, his matchup tonight should aid him in posting a zero. Baltimore may be hanging around the playoff picture and have plenty of young talent in their lineup, but they are still notoriously slow starters. The Orioles enter tonight ranking just 27th in first-inning runs per game.
The bottom of the first will be in the hands of Jordan Lyles, and while that may not seem promising, he’s an excellent fit for how we are backing him tonight. First, Lyles is due for some positive regression as his FIP is 4.30, which is slightly lower than his season ERA of 4.45. Secondly, he has solid numbers in the first inning this season. Through 26 starts, Lyles has a 3.12 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Lastly, he also has a decent matchup in front of him as the Guardians rank 12th in first-inning runs per game but have gone cold of late as they have failed to score in the first in each of their last three ball games. So while the bottom of the first may get sweaty, Lyles gives us a better chance at zero than the oddsmakers think.