The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-135) on Tuesday, August 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 41-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-58 ATS.
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 71.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 55 games (+17.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 57 games (+14.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 55 games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 74 games (+15.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+4.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 49-53 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -7.5% ROI).
- 41-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.1 Units / -9.21% ROI
- 54-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 1.69% ROI
- 47-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -11.23% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-58 against the Run Line (-20.85 Units / -15.27% ROI).
- 47-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.75 Units / -11.05% ROI
- 50-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -3.07% ROI
- 49-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -4.9% ROI
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (25/53) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (414/557) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (51/82) against Graham Ashcraft in two-strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (99/552) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 37% (156/421) against Braxton Garrett this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (355/844) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
76% of Braxton Garrett’s non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 90th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has recorded 38 of his 55 strikeouts (69%) with breaking balls this season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 91st Percentile.