The Cincinnati Reds (-110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-110) on Monday, August 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+180).
The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 40-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-57 ATS.
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 54 games (+18.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 56 games (+15.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 54 games (+13.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 46 games at home (+12.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.30 Units / 44% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 73 games (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 75 games (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+9.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 39 games at home (+5.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 48-53 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -8.43% ROI).
- 40-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.1 Units / -10.22% ROI
- 54-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 2.78% ROI
- 46-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.6 Units / -12.23% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-57 against the Run Line (-19.85 Units / -14.65% ROI).
- 47-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.55 Units / -10.18% ROI
- 50-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -2.04% ROI
- 48-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -5.84% ROI
Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (52 Total Bases / 65 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .857 (30 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene has thrown 339 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (39 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .572 — 0 Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has walked 67 of 623 right-handed batters (11%) since the start of 2020 — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .703 (232 Total Bases / 330 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .562 — 0 Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.363 (161 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 1.062 — second Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of .853 (623 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of 2020 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .715 — third Percentile.