The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Thursday, April 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Pirates are 9-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 5-7 ATS.
Pirates vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 1-1, 3.86 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 1-0, 4.22 ERA
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.15 Units / 116% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 12 games at home (+12.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games at home (+12.45 Units / 85% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+8.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.70 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 9-3 against the Run Line (+7.6 Units / 48.1% ROI).
- 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 44.81% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 27.76% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -36.23% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 5-7 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -17% ROI).
- 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -11.73% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -20.97% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 11.88% ROI
Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rojas | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Triolo | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Stott | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Cruz | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Hayes | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Rojas | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Taylor | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Marsh | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Triolo | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rojas | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Triolo | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Taylor | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Cruz | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joe | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (43/104) against Jared Jones this season — best among in NL; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Jared Jones has a strike rate of 74% (125/169) this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 59% (69/117) against Jared Jones in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (43/104) against Jared Jones this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (19/28) against Ranger Suarez this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (19/28) against Ranger Suarez this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has walked 1 of 41 batters (2%) this season — tied for 2nd best among in NL; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 71% (17/24) against Ranger Suarez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.