The Baltimore Orioles (-125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+105) on Thursday, April 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Orioles are 7-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 8-4 ATS.

Orioles vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

• Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez 2-0, 2.19 ERA
• Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock 1-0, 0.97 ERA

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 58.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:

• Grayson Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.40 Units / 70% ROI)
• James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• James McCann has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• James McCann has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• Grayson Rodriguez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Tanner Houck has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+6.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• Brayan Bello has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• Brayan Bello has hit the Strikeouts Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 58% ROI)
• David Hamilton has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 23% ROI)

Orioles Best Bets Today:

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 95 of their last 153 games (+33.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 76 away games (+25.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 76 away games (+8.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+1.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.60 Units / 14% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 6-5 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 17.92% ROI).

• 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 8.83% ROI
• 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 4% ROI
• 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -11.97% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 8-4 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 26.51% ROI).

• 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 15.25% ROI
• 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 3.73% ROI
• 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -11.54% ROI

Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (5/20) against Grayson Rodriguez this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.

Grayson Rodriguez has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (36/49) this season — 4th highest among in AL; League Avg: 64% — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 42% (13/31) against Grayson Rodriguez this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.

Grayson Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of 33% (16 SO in 49 PAs) this season — 3rd best among in AL; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Garrett Whitlock has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 78.6 MPH (10 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 89.0 — 99th Percentile.

Garrett Whitlock has not allowed a home run in any of the last 25.0 innings he’s appeared — Edwin Diaz has the longest active streak at 56.0.

Garrett Whitlock walked 13 of 304 batters (4%) in the 2023 season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 8% (2/24) against Garrett Whitlock on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

  
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