The Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-145) on Monday, May 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.

This season, the Pirates are 18-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 22-18 ATS.

Pirates vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 3-3, 4.44 ERA
• Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 3-0, 3.29 ERA

Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 23 games (+19.75 Units / 40% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+15.30 Units / 191% ROI)
• Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+19.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 28 games (+16.00 Units / 57% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 40 games (+14.90 Units / 37% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+13.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+11.55 Units / 32% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.13 Units / 40% ROI)

Brewers Best Bets Today:

• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 20-21 against the Run Line (-3.09 Units / -5.69% ROI).

• 18-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -14.79% ROI
• 17-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -12.8% ROI
• 21-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.78 Units / 6.2% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 22-18 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 1.32% ROI).

• 24-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.3 Units / 18.04% ROI
• 24-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.7 Units / 15.24% ROI
• 16-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.15 Units / -23.04% ROI

Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 11% (6/56) against Mitch Keller on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .282 (161-for-571) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — seventh Percentile.

Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 46% (25/54) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

4 of Mitch Keller’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 9th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 89th Percentile.

Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Colin Rea has struck out just 14% (13/94) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 16% (10 SO in 63 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 11% (6/56) against Colin Rea when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (50/273) against Colin Rea this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

  
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