The Philadelphia Phillies (-160) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 53-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 51-49 ATS.

Phillies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 73.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.

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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 40 away games (+18.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 49 games (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.45 Units / 53% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 away games (+13.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.95 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 40 games at home (+12.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+11.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
• Ben Gamel has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.85 Units / 50% ROI)

Pirates vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 54 of their last 95 games (+11.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 37 away games (+11.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.10 Units / 18% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 91 games (+10.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+5.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games at home (+2.25 Units / 13% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 52-48 against the Run Line (+4.25 Units / 3.5% ROI).

• 53-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -1.58% ROI
• 51-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.59% ROI
• 45-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.95 Units / -9.93% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 51-49 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -4.09% ROI).

• 40-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -3.5% ROI
• 41-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -15.24% ROI
• 53-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.85 Units / 7.08% ROI

Ranger Suarez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (103/548) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (16/125) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.5 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (87 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 89.8

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (18/29) against Ranger Suarez — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.

Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .427 (162-for-379) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.2 MPH on non-fastballs since the start of last season (275 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 86.9

Opponents are hitting .299 (232-for-776) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .243 — fourth Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .396 (207 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 0 Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

  
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