The Philadelphia Phillies (+130) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-155) on Monday, March 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Dunedin.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Phillies vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Phillies are 8-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 13-10 ATS.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 64.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.05 Units / 203% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.60 Units / 180% ROI)
- Cavan Biggio has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.50 Units / 175% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 61 away games (+24.08 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 away games (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.83 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 128 games (+7.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games at home (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 games (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 49 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 7-15 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -35.5% ROI).
- 8-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -24.81% ROI
- 15-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 29.16% ROI
- 7-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.45 Units / -39.05% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 13-10 against the Run Line (+3.6 Units / 13.41% ROI).
- 15-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 18.7% ROI
- 9-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.15 Units / -20.44% ROI
- 13-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 12.6% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 126 of Taijuan Walker’s 568 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Taijuan Walker had a strike rate of just 55% (260/476) on sliders last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Hitters chased just 83 of Taijuan Walker’s 387 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 168 of Taijuan Walker’s 793 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (91/515) versus Chris Bassitt last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH on the 192 breaking pitches put in play against him since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 87.2.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (91/515) versus Chris Bassitt last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.