The Florida Panthers face the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final, and Sportsbook Review analyst Neil Parker has taken a statistical deep dive based on the NHL odds from our best live betting sites to present his Panthers Stanley Cup Final betting preview.
Are the Vegas Golden Knights the next betting favorites in the Stanley Cup odds to be taken down by the Florida Panthers?
The Cats have sent the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes packing as the pre-series underdogs while also sizzling along an 11-1 heater. Florida snuck into the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs as the No. 8 seed, and now they're four wins from a franchise-first championship.
But here's the problem: Vegas is talented, deep, and well-coached.
Plus, the No. 1 reason the Panthers are in the final in the first place is Conn Smythe Trophy favorite Sergei Bobrovsky, but ask yourself, do you actually think he's going to continue his postseason dominance?
I'm far from convinced.
Here's my statistical analysis for the Panthers ahead of the Stanley Cup Final and a pair of picks available through DraftKings.
Panthers Stanley Cup Final Betting Preview: Statistical deep dive
After scoring three times through his first four postseason games, Bennett has only found the back of the net once across the past 11. He ranks second in shots (37), attempts (71) and individual high-danger scoring chances (22), and is third in individual expected goals (4.08) with a 2.7 shooting percentage during the slide.
Considering Bennett has a career 10.1 shooting percentage during the regular season and skates with the No. 1 power-play unit, he's primed for improved puck luck against Vegas.
I highlighted how disciplined the Golden Knights are in our Stanley Cup Final preview, which stands to cut into Reinhart's production. All three of his points during the Eastern Conference Final against the Carolina Hurricanes came with the man advantage, and Reinhart has settled into a t hird-line role while primarily matching up against the opposition's top scorers at even strength.
Furthermore, a quick peek at the difference in a couple of his important offensive statistics during the regular season compared to the playoffs reinforces the negative regression ahead.
| Reinhart | Goals per 60 | Expected goals per 60 | Shooting percentage | Shots per 60 | Attempts per 60 | High-danger scoring chances per 60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postseason | 1.19 | 1.11 | 19.4 | 6.1 | 11.3 | 3.92 |
| Regular season | 1.15 | 1.36 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 15.1 | 6.29 |
Reinhart is scoring at a similar rate despite registering fewer shots, attempts and generating fewer high-danger scoring chances.
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In all seriousness, if Brickwall Bobby shows up against Vegas, Florida will win the Stanley Cup, and Bobrovsky will win the Conn Smythe Trophy.
I'm just expecting it to be Goalie Bob between the pipes in the final. Or, at least, that Bobrovsky won't maintain his incredible play over the past two rounds against Toronto and Carolina.
| Bobrovsky | 5v5 save percentage | 5v5 GAA | 5v5 expected goals against per 60 | 5v5 high-danger save percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rounds 2 and 3 | .957 | 1.32 | 2.98 | .908 |
| Entire postseason | .952 | 1.52 | 2.9 | .894 |
| Regular Season | .917 | 2.48 | 2.71 | .858 |
The room for statistical correction could prove to be razor thin, and if Bobrovsky's play dips to his regular-season numbers, Florida will have its hands full with Vegas.
Panthers Stanley Cup Final betting preview: picks
Based on the highlighted swings in shooting percentages for the two Sams, I'm backing Bennett in this head-to-head matchup. Both players skate on the No. 1 power-play unit, and there's a huge gap in a number of their important offensive statistics.
| Goals per 60 | Expected goals per 60 | Shooting percentage | Shots per 60 | Attempts per 60 | High-danger scoring chances per 60 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett | 0.79 | 1.28 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 18.4 | 6.07 |
| Reinhart | 1.19 | 1.11 | 19.4 | 6.1 | 11.3 | 3.92 |
Additionally, there's a sneaky ice-time advantage with Bennett logging more five-on-five minutes because Reinhart ranks second among Florida forwards in shorthanded ice time with an average of 2:04 per game.
With Karlsson set for a splash of statistical correction, this is an opportunity to bet against him. Duclair has settled into a cushy gig skating alongside center Aleksander Barkov and winger Carter Verhaeghe, and Duclair has registered significantly more attempts per game and per 60 minutes during the postseason.
| Duclair | Shots per 60 | Shots per game | Attempts per 60 | Attempts per game | Ice time per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postseason | 8.05 | 2.13 | 15.1 | 4.0 | 15:53 |
| Regular season | 8.69 | 2.15 | 16.77 | 4.15 | 14:51 |
| Karlsson | Shots per 60 | Shots per game | Attempts per 60 | Attempts per game | Ice time per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postseason | 7.38 | 2.18 | 11.57 | 2.18 | 17:41 |
| Regular season | 6.74 | 1.96 | 12.15 | 3.54 | 17:28 |
The key to this prop is a few more of Duclair's attempts translating into shots, and Karlsson's shot and attempt volume regressing closer to his regular-season rates.
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