The San Diego Padres (+140) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-165) on Thursday, April 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Padres vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

This season, the Padres are 3-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 5-1 ATS.

Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.90 Units / 104% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 91% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
• Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 86% ROI)

Braves vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 away games (+4.30 Units / 12% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 61 games at home (+20.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 76 games at home (+19.42 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 71 games at home (+19.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+8.45 Units / 17% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 2-4 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -32.26% ROI).

• 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -23.61% ROI
• 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 26.09% ROI
• 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -33.86% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 5-1 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 51.19% ROI).

• 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 35.5% ROI
• 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -36.92% ROI
• 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 25.37% ROI

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Blake Snell has a strikeout rate of 43% (9 SO in 21 PAs) this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 50% (8/16) against Blake Snell this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (20/46) against Blake Snell this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 99th Percentile.

Blake Snell has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season (129 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 80.4

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Spencer Strider struck out 44% (111/251) of right-handed batters he faced in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents had a miss rate of 41% (69/168) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 47% (28 SO in 59 PAs) in late innings since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

  
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